Premier League Round 5. Model probabilities are SharpModels' own current win, draw and loss figures for each match. Market probabilities are prediction-market prices with the overround removed, since the raw prices run to 101 or more across three outcomes instead of 100. Diff is quoted as SharpModels minus the no-vig market, so a positive number means SharpModels rates that outcome higher than the market does.
Four rounds are banked now, so every rating below has moved from where the season started. Arsenal and Manchester City are the only sides still perfect at four wins from four, and carry the league's two best ratings; Coventry have lost all four without scoring. The interesting gaps this week are the two games where model and market cannot agree on how much recent form should override a rating built over a longer run.
Round 5 Slate
| Match | Model H | Model D | Model A | Market H | Market D | Market A | Diff H | Diff A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brentfordv Chelsea | 43% | 27% | 30% | 32.4% | 25.5% | 42.2% | +10.6 | −12.2 |
 Tottenhamv Aston Villa | 32% | 28% | 40% | 47.1% | 26.5% | 26.5% | −15.1 | +13.5 |
 Brightonv Arsenal | 24% | 26% | 50% | 19.4% | 23.3% | 57.3% | +4.6 | −7.3 |
 Newcastlev Hull | 69% | 19% | 13% | 59.4% | 21.8% | 18.8% | +9.6 | −5.8 |
 Evertonv Ipswich | 52% | 25% | 23% | 54.5% | 24.8% | 20.8% | −2.5 | +2.2 |
 Nottinghamv Coventry | 54% | 25% | 21% | 58.4% | 23.8% | 17.8% | −4.4 | +3.2 |
 Bournemouthv Liverpool | 35% | 28% | 37% | 29% | 25% | 46% | +6 | −9 |
 Manchester Cityv Sunderland | 70% | 18% | 12% | 75.5% | 15.7% | 8.8% | −5.5 | +3.2 |
 Leedsv Crystal Palace | 53% | 25% | 22% | 53.9% | 25.5% | 20.6% | −0.9 | +1.4 |
 Fulhamv Manchester Utd | 33% | 28% | 39% | 27.2% | 25.2% | 47.6% | +5.8 | −8.6 |
Market columns above are already vig-free. Two games flip the favourite outright, and they are the two widest gaps of the round. Tottenham versus Aston Villa is the biggest: SharpModels backs Villa on rating by 13.5 points, while the market backs Tottenham at home by 15.1. Brentford versus Chelsea is next at 12.2 points on Chelsea, where the model prefers Brentford at home instead. At the other end, Leeds versus Crystal Palace and Everton versus Ipswich are near carbon copies, with model and market inside three points on every outcome.
Match by match
Brentford vs Chelsea Fri, Sep 18, 2026 · 8:00 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford |
43% | 32.4% | +10.6 |
| Draw | 27% | 25.5% | +1.5 |
| Chelsea |
30% | 42.2% | −12.2 |
Brentford have drawn four of their last five, including 2–2 at Bournemouth and 1–1 at home to Sunderland, and are unbeaten but stuck on one win from four. Chelsea come off a 2–2 home draw with Hull and a 1–2 loss at Arsenal, having won 4–3 at home to Brighton before that. The ratings have these two almost level (1902 to 1911), so SharpModels leans on home advantage and makes Brentford favourites. The market goes the other way and prices Chelsea clear instead, which looks like it is weighting Chelsea's higher scoring rate (2.5 goals a game to Brentford's 1.8) more than the model does. Honours are even all-time at 3 wins each from 10 meetings, but Brentford have not won any of the last five, Chelsea taking two of those and drawing three, most recently a 2–0 Chelsea win in January.
Tottenham vs Aston Villa Sat, Sep 19, 2026 · 12:30 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham |
32% | 47.1% | −15.1 |
| Draw | 28% | 26.5% | +1.5 |
| Aston Villa |
40% | 26.5% | +13.5 |
The widest gap of the round, and one of two games where the two sides disagree on who should be favourite at all. Tottenham have drawn their last two 0–0, against Everton and Nottingham, and have not scored in four league games, sitting on 0 wins from 4. Villa are also winless, losing 1–2 at home to Nottingham and being beaten 4–0 at Brighton. Villa's rating is nearly 90 points higher (1930 to 1842), which is why SharpModels still makes the visitors favourites despite their form. The market disregards that gap entirely and installs Tottenham as the home pick. Spurs dominate the all-time record 18 wins to 7 from 27 meetings, and Tottenham also won the most recent, 2–1 away at Villa in May.
Brighton vs Arsenal Sat, Sep 19, 2026 · 3:00 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton |
24% | 19.4% | +4.6 |
| Draw | 26% | 23.3% | +2.7 |
| Arsenal |
50% | 57.3% | −7.3 |
Arsenal are one of two sides still on four wins from four, including 2–0 at Sunderland and 2–1 over Chelsea, and their 2092 rating is the best in the league, just ahead of Manchester City. Brighton are more volatile: a 5–0 win at Coventry and a 4–0 over Villa, but also a 3–4 loss at Chelsea. Model and market agree on the direction and differ mainly on degree, with the market a further seven points more confident in Arsenal than SharpModels is. Arsenal lead 8 wins to 5 across 18 meetings and won the most recent 1–0 at Brighton in March.
Newcastle vs Hull Sat, Sep 19, 2026 · 3:00 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle |
69% | 59.4% | +9.6 |
| Draw | 19% | 21.8% | −2.8 |
| Hull |
13% | 18.8% | −5.8 |
Newcastle arrive off a heavy 1–4 loss at Leeds and have one win from four. Hull, promoted and unbeaten in their opening four, have drawn 2–2 at Chelsea and 0–0 with Villa and won at Coventry. The ratings still separate them by 176 points (1913 to 1737) and both model and market make Newcastle clear favourites, but SharpModels is almost ten points higher on the home win, effectively treating Hull's unbeaten start as a smaller signal than the market does. The two have met only four times, Newcastle winning two, and have not played since 2015, when Newcastle won 3–0 at Hull.
Everton vs Ipswich Sat, Sep 19, 2026 · 3:00 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton |
52% | 54.5% | −2.5 |
| Draw | 25% | 24.8% | +0.2 |
| Ipswich |
23% | 20.8% | +2.2 |
Everton have drawn three in a row, including 0–0 at Tottenham and 2–2 with Manchester Utd, so like Brentford they are hard to beat but rarely winning. Ipswich are streakier, winning 3–2 at Crystal Palace and 2–1 over Sunderland but losing 2–5 at Manchester Utd. Model and market are within three points on every outcome here, the second-closest agreement on the card. The sides have met just twice, drawing 2–2 at Everton in May 2025.
Nottingham vs Coventry Sat, Sep 19, 2026 · 5:30 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham |
54% | 58.4% | −4.4 |
| Draw | 25% | 23.8% | +1.2 |
| Coventry |
21% | 17.8% | +3.2 |
Coventry have lost all four league games so far without scoring in any of them, including 0–5 at home to Brighton and 0–3 at Arsenal, and at 1816 carry one of the lowest ratings in the round. Nottingham won 2–1 at Villa last time out. Both sides agree Forest should win comfortably, with the market four points higher on the home win than the model. Forest lead the all-time record 6–3 from nine meetings and won the last one 2–0, though that was back in 2022.
Bournemouth vs Liverpool Sun, Sep 20, 2026 · 2:00 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth |
35% | 29% | +6 |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | +3 |
| Liverpool |
37% | 46% | −9 |
Liverpool have drawn four of their last five, including 0–0 at home to Fulham and 2–2 at Newcastle, and have just one win from four despite a 1956 rating. Bournemouth have drawn three straight and are still looking for a first win. SharpModels reads this as nearly even, giving Liverpool only a two-point edge, while the market is far more confident in the visitors at 17 points clear. That is one of the widest disagreements of the round, and it is notable that Bournemouth won the most recent meeting 3–2 in January, one of only three wins they have managed in 18 meetings against Liverpool.
Manchester City vs Sunderland Sun, Sep 20, 2026 · 2:00 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City |
70% | 75.5% | −5.5 |
| Draw | 18% | 15.7% | +2.3 |
| Sunderland |
12% | 8.8% | +3.2 |
City have won four from four, including 1–0 at Manchester Utd and 4–1 at Crystal Palace, and at 2057 are rated second only to Arsenal. Sunderland have beaten Fulham and drawn at Brentford but lost 0–2 at home to Arsenal. Both sides make this the most one-sided game on the card, with the market five and a half points higher on City than the model. City lead 9 wins to 4 from 17 meetings, though the most recent ended 0–0 at Sunderland on New Year's Day.
Leeds vs Crystal Palace Sun, Sep 20, 2026 · 2:00 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds |
53% | 53.9% | −0.9 |
| Draw | 25% | 25.5% | −0.5 |
| Crystal Palace |
22% | 20.6% | +1.4 |
Leeds beat Newcastle 4–1 on Monday and are unbeaten in four. Crystal Palace have lost three of four, including 2–3 at home to Ipswich and 1–4 to Manchester City, with a 3–2 win at Fulham the exception. Model and market are within two points on every outcome, the closest agreement of the round. Leeds lead 6–4 from 14 meetings and the last one was a 0–0 draw at Crystal Palace in March.
Fulham vs Manchester Utd Sun, Sep 20, 2026 · 4:30 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham |
33% | 27.2% | +5.8 |
| Draw | 28% | 25.2% | +2.8 |
| Manchester Utd |
39% | 47.6% | −8.6 |
Fulham have lost three of four and drawn 0–0 at Liverpool, while Manchester Utd have alternated results, losing 0–1 to City and 0–2 at Hull but winning 5–2 against Ipswich. The ratings favour United by 80 points (1948 to 1868), so SharpModels makes them narrow favourites, but the market is nearly nine points further in that direction again. United own this fixture historically, 16 wins to 1 from 21 meetings, and won the most recent 3–2 in February, which may explain why the market discounts Fulham's home advantage almost entirely.