EPL Round 5 2026: SharpModels vs Market
Ten Premier League matches, SharpModels against the market, with recent form and head to head behind every gap.
Read article NFLNFL Week 2 2026: SharpModels vs Market
Every Week 2 game, model against market, with each side's Week 1 result and rating move behind the gap. The second entry in a season long watching brief.
Read article EPLEPL Round 4 2026: SharpModels vs Market
Nine English Premier League matches, SharpModels against the market, with recent form and head to head behind every gap.
Read article NFLNFL Week 1 2026: SharpModels vs Market
Sixteen Week 1 games, SharpModels against the market, game by game. The first entry in a season long watching brief.
Read article MethodologyWhen a Backtested Trading Model Met Real Money
A 2015 reinforcement learning thesis traded Betfair markets with real money, and made only 15% of what its backtest predicted. Here's the gap, and why it still matters.
Read article NFL2026 AFC East Preview
Buffalo and New England are in lockstep with the market. Miami isn't, and the reasons why are all real.
Read article NFL2026 AFC North Preview
Joe Burrow's healthy return moves Cincinnati 13 points against our own model. Here's every AFC North team's real offseason story.
Read article NFL2026 AFC South Preview
Houston's model-market gap is the widest in the division with no clear negative news to explain it. Indianapolis and Tennessee tell a different story.
Read article NFL2026 AFC West Preview
Denver carries the largest model-vs-market gap of any AFC division. Kansas City's is explained by one sentence: Patrick Mahomes is healthy again.
Read article NFL2026 NFC East Preview
Philadelphia and Dallas post two of the most dramatic, opposite gaps in this whole project: a +29 and a -21 in the same division.
Read article NFL2026 NFC North Preview
Minnesota's quarterback competition is still unresolved in camp. Chicago's market price is betting hard on year two of Ben Johnson.
Read article NFL2026 NFC South Preview
Tampa Bay and Atlanta are both managing real bad news. New Orleans and Carolina are riding real good news. The NFC South splits clean in half.
Read article NFL2026 NFC West Preview
Reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle vs. all-in challenger Los Angeles: the cleanest model-vs-market story in the whole league.
Read article NFL2026 NFL Strength of Schedule: Full Preseason Breakdown by Division
A one-off, point-in-time breakdown of every team's 2026 schedule difficulty, conference by conference and division by division.
Read article MethodologyHow Strength of Schedule Works
Why we give every team a flat, average rating to isolate how hard their remaining games really are.
Read article MethodologyHow the MLB Season Simulator Works
The same season-simulation approach as the NFL model, adapted for a 162-game schedule and MLB's own playoff format.
Read article MethodologyHow the NFL Season Simulator Works
Why we simulate the season thousands of times, and why team ratings evolve as it unfolds.
Read article CodingBuilding a Clean NFL Elo Rating Model From Results
The fundamental problem every sports model has to solve: how do you actually measure team strength?
Read article CodingAdding Home Advantage to NFL Elo Ratings
Extending the baseline Elo model to account for the real, measurable edge of playing at home.
Read article CodingAdding Margin of Victory to NFL Elo Ratings
Why a 3-point win and a 30-point win shouldn't move a team's rating by the same amount.
Read article CodingAdding Seasonal Carryover to NFL Elo Ratings
How much of a team's rating should reset between seasons, and how much should carry over?
Read article CodingEvaluating NFL Elo Win Probabilities
Putting the finished model to the test: how well do its win probabilities actually hold up against real results?
Read article CodingInterpreting NFL Elo Rating Differences
What a 50-point or 150-point gap between two teams' ratings actually means in practice.
Read article CodingVisualising NFL Elo Ratings Through Time
Turning a season of rating updates into a chart that shows how every team's form has actually moved.
Read article CodingTurning NFL Elo Ratings Into Win Probabilities
How a rating gap between two teams becomes a single-game win probability.
Read article CodingBuild an NFL Elo Forecasting Model From Scratch
Start from scratch: the simplest possible rating system, built and tested from real results.
Read article CodingGetting Started With SharpModels Code
An introduction to the codebase behind SharpModels' ratings and forecasts.
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