Premier League Round 8. Round 7 went to the market: its favourite won seven times to SharpModels' six, and it was closer on average accuracy. Both of the round's real disagreements went its way. Chelsea won 2–0 at Everton, where SharpModels had leaned to the home side, and Tottenham beat Coventry 3–1 for their first win of the season, the game where the market was 20 points more confident in Spurs. That follows a Round 5 that went to SharpModels and a Round 6 where it picked more winners but the two were level on accuracy.
Model probabilities are SharpModels' own current win, draw and loss figures for each match. Market probabilities are prediction-market prices (Kalshi mid-prices, taken on the morning of October 22) with the overround removed, since the raw prices add up to between 99.5 and 101.5 across the three outcomes. Diff is quoted as SharpModels minus the no-vig market, so a positive number means SharpModels rates that outcome higher than the market does.
Round 8 Slate
| Match | Model H | Model D | Model A | Market H | Market D | Market A | Diff H | Diff A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ipswichv Nottingham | 41% | 28% | 31% | 29.6% | 27.6% | 42.7% | +11.4 | −11.7 |
 Aston Villav Manchester City | 30% | 28% | 42% | 19.2% | 22.2% | 58.6% | +10.8 | −16.6 |
 Arsenalv Everton | 72% | 17% | 11% | 68.5% | 21% | 10.5% | +3.5 | +0.5 |
 Coventryv Fulham | 39% | 28% | 33% | 31% | 27.5% | 41.5% | +8 | −8.5 |
 Chelseav Tottenham | 55% | 24% | 20% | 57.2% | 22.4% | 20.4% | −2.2 | −0.4 |
 Crystal Palacev Newcastle | 37% | 28% | 35% | 33.3% | 26.4% | 40.3% | +3.7 | −5.3 |
 Hullv Brentford | 22% | 25% | 52% | 20.4% | 23.4% | 56.2% | +1.6 | −4.2 |
 Liverpoolv Brighton | 43% | 27% | 30% | 44.8% | 24.1% | 31% | −1.8 | −1 |
 Manchester Utdv Bournemouth | 47% | 27% | 26% | 47.7% | 25.6% | 26.6% | −0.7 | −0.6 |
 Sunderlandv Leeds | 38% | 28% | 34% | 30.5% | 30% | 39.5% | +7.5 | −5.5 |
Market columns above are already vig-free. After last week's quiet round, this one has a clear pattern. SharpModels and the market back different favourites in four games, Ipswich v Nottingham, Coventry v Fulham, Crystal Palace v Newcastle and Sunderland v Leeds, and all four have the same shape: the away side is rated a little higher, home advantage tips SharpModels to the home team, and the market backs the away team. In all, SharpModels rates the home win higher than the market in seven of the ten games. The widest gap is Aston Villa v Manchester City, where the market is 17 points more confident in the unbeaten leaders. The other five games agree to within five points on every outcome.
Match by match
Ipswich vs Nottingham Fri, Oct 23, 2026 · 8:00 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich |
41% | 29.6% | +11.4 |
| Draw | 28% | 27.6% | +0.4 |
| Nottingham |
31% | 42.7% | −11.7 |
Friday night, and one of four games where model and market back different favourites. Ipswich are tenth with three wins and four defeats, the latest a 3–2 defeat at Manchester City. Nottingham are 19th with one win from seven and have lost three straight, the latest 1–0 at home to Arsenal, scoring five goals all season, the fewest in the league. Nottingham are rated only 24 points higher (1859 to 1835), so home advantage makes Ipswich 41% favourites on SharpModels. The market makes Nottingham 43% favourites, more than 11 points apart on both teams' chances. Nottingham have the better of this fixture, 12 wins to 4 with five draws from 21 meetings, and won four of the last five, most recently 4–2 at Ipswich in March 2025.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City Sat, Oct 24, 2026 · 12:30 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa |
30% | 19.2% | +10.8 |
| Draw | 28% | 22.2% | +5.8 |
| Manchester City |
42% | 58.6% | −16.6 |
The widest gap of the round. Manchester City are top and the only side with a perfect record, seven wins from seven, most recently a 3–2 home win over Ipswich. Villa are 12th in the table but rated fifth (1954), and have won two of their last three, the latest 1–0 at Newcastle. City are rated 106 points higher (2060), and home advantage narrows that to City 42%, Villa 30% on SharpModels. The market makes City 59% favourites, 17 points higher. City lead the all-time record 19 wins to 6 from 27 meetings, but Villa won the most recent, 2–1 at City in May.
Arsenal vs Everton Sat, Oct 24, 2026 · 3:00 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal |
72% | 68.5% | +3.5 |
| Draw | 17% | 21% | −4 |
| Everton |
11% | 10.5% | +0.5 |
Arsenal are second, with the best rating in the league (2085), six wins from seven and only five goals conceded, joint-fewest with Brighton. Their 1–0 win at Nottingham was their second in a row. Everton are eighth and lost for the first time last round, 2–0 at home to Chelsea. Close agreement, with Arsenal 72% on SharpModels and 68.5% on the market. Arsenal lead the all-time record 18 wins to 7 from 33 meetings and are unbeaten in the last five, most recently 2–0 at home in March.
Coventry vs Fulham Sat, Oct 24, 2026 · 3:00 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry |
39% | 31% | +8 |
| Draw | 28% | 27.5% | +0.5 |
| Fulham |
33% | 41.5% | −8.5 |
Another favourite flip. Coventry are 17th and lost 3–1 at Tottenham on Monday, but beat Newcastle 4–1 in their last home game. Fulham are 18th and won for the first time last round, 1–0 at home to Hull. Fulham are rated 40 points higher (1865 to 1825); home advantage tips SharpModels to Coventry at 39%. The market makes Fulham 42% favourites. The two have met only twice in the site's records, both Coventry wins, the latest 3–1 at Fulham in April 2022.
Chelsea vs Tottenham Sat, Oct 24, 2026 · 5:30 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea |
55% | 57.2% | −2.2 |
| Draw | 24% | 22.4% | +1.6 |
| Tottenham |
20% | 20.4% | −0.4 |
Chelsea are fourth after back-to-back wins, 5–1 over Bournemouth and 2–0 at Everton. Tottenham won for the first time last round, 3–1 over Coventry, and are 16th. A 76-point ratings gap (1925 to 1849) plus home advantage makes Chelsea clear favourites on both sides, with the market two points firmer. Chelsea lead the all-time record 18 wins to 6 with nine draws from 33 meetings and have won the last five, most recently 2–1 at home in May.
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle Sun, Oct 25, 2026 · 2:00 PM GMT
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace |
37% | 33.3% | +3.7 |
| Draw | 28% | 26.4% | +1.6 |
| Newcastle |
35% | 40.3% | −5.3 |
A third favourite flip. Palace are 14th and lost 5–0 at Brighton last time out. Newcastle are 11th and have lost three of their last four, most recently 1–0 at home to Aston Villa. Newcastle are rated 52 points higher (1894 to 1842), which home advantage just about cancels: SharpModels has Palace 37%, Newcastle 35%. The market makes Newcastle 40% favourites. Newcastle lead the all-time record 11 wins to 6 with eight draws from 25 meetings, but Palace won the most recent, 2–1 at home in April.
Hull vs Brentford Sun, Oct 25, 2026 · 2:00 PM GMT
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull |
22% | 20.4% | +1.6 |
| Draw | 25% | 23.4% | +1.6 |
| Brentford |
52% | 56.2% | −4.2 |
Hull are ninth on nine points, but their 1733 rating is still the lowest in the league. They lost 1–0 at Fulham last time. Brentford are sixth and lost for the first time last round, 2–1 at home to Liverpool. A 176-point ratings gap makes Brentford clear favourites on both sides, the market four points firmer. Brentford lead the all-time record 4 wins to 2 from eight meetings, most recently 5–1 at Hull in February 2020.
Liverpool vs Brighton Sun, Oct 25, 2026 · 2:00 PM GMT
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool |
43% | 44.8% | −1.8 |
| Draw | 27% | 24.1% | +2.9 |
| Brighton |
30% | 31% | −1 |
Brighton are third, have won four straight, the latest 5–0 over Crystal Palace, and have scored 23 goals, the most in the league. Liverpool are fifth after a 2–1 win at Brentford. The ratings are close, Brighton 1977 to Liverpool 1963, so SharpModels' lean to Liverpool at 43% is home advantage, and the market agrees to within three points on every outcome. Liverpool lead the all-time record 10 wins to 4 from 18 meetings, but Brighton have won three of the last five, most recently 2–1 at home in March.
Manchester Utd vs Bournemouth Sun, Oct 25, 2026 · 2:00 PM GMT
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester Utd |
47% | 47.7% | −0.7 |
| Draw | 27% | 25.6% | +1.4 |
| Bournemouth |
26% | 26.6% | −0.6 |
The closest game of the round, with model and market within 1.5 points on every outcome. Manchester Utd are 13th with one win and four draws, and their last three games all finished 1–1, the latest at Leeds. Bournemouth are 15th and won for the first time last round, 2–0 over Sunderland. The ratings are close (1910 to 1889). United lead the all-time record 9 wins to 4 from 18 meetings, but four of the last five were draws, most recently 2–2 at Bournemouth in March.
Sunderland vs Leeds Sun, Oct 25, 2026 · 4:30 PM GMT
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland |
38% | 30.5% | +7.5 |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | −2 |
| Leeds |
34% | 39.5% | −5.5 |
The fourth favourite flip. Sunderland are bottom with four points and four straight defeats, the latest 2–0 at Bournemouth. Leeds are seventh, beaten only once, and drew 1–1 with Manchester Utd last time. Leeds are rated 45 points higher (1894 to 1849); home advantage tips SharpModels to Sunderland at 38%. The market makes Leeds 40% favourites and has the draw at 30%, the highest draw price of the round. The record is level at two wins each with four draws from eight meetings; Sunderland won the most recent, 1–0 at Leeds in March.