Premier League Round 10. Round 9 was split again. SharpModels' favourite won six times to the market's five, helped by a favourite flip at Coventry, where SharpModels backed the home side and they beat Sunderland 3–1; the other flip, Hull v Ipswich, finished 2–2. But the market was slightly closer on average accuracy, with the widest gap the biggest single swing: it had Tottenham at 63% against Crystal Palace, SharpModels had them at 49%, and Spurs won 2–0. SharpModels' firmer home favourites were mixed. Bournemouth and Brentford both won 2–0, but Aston Villa were held 1–1 by Fulham and Newcastle lost 1–0 at home to Everton.
Model probabilities are SharpModels' own current win, draw and loss figures for each match, and its ratings include Tuesday's Champions League games. Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City play in Europe on Wednesday and Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Sunderland on Thursday, after these figures. Market probabilities are prediction-market prices (Kalshi mid-prices, taken on the evening of November 4) with the overround removed, since the raw prices add up to between 99 and 100.5 across the three outcomes. Diff is quoted as SharpModels minus the no-vig market, so a positive number means SharpModels rates that outcome higher than the market does.
Round 10 Slate
| Match | Model H | Model D | Model A | Market H | Market D | Market A | Diff H | Diff A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Evertonv Coventry | 54% | 25% | 21% | 56.5% | 24% | 19.5% | −2.5 | +1.5 |
 Leedsv Tottenham | 46% | 27% | 27% | 36.3% | 28.4% | 35.3% | +9.7 | −8.3 |
 Arsenalv Hull | 86% | 9% | 5% | 84.5% | 11% | 4.5% | +1.5 | +0.5 |
 Fulhamv Newcastle | 42% | 28% | 31% | 47.3% | 25.4% | 27.4% | −5.3 | +3.6 |
 Nottinghamv Manchester City | 21% | 25% | 54% | 20.4% | 23.4% | 56.2% | +0.6 | −2.2 |
 Brightonv Brentford | 53% | 25% | 22% | 49.3% | 25.4% | 25.4% | +3.7 | −3.4 |
 Crystal Palacev Liverpool | 26% | 27% | 48% | 17.4% | 22.4% | 60.2% | +8.6 | −12.2 |
 Ipswichv Bournemouth | 31% | 28% | 42% | 24.6% | 25.6% | 49.7% | +6.4 | −7.7 |
 Sunderlandv Chelsea | 33% | 28% | 39% | 25.8% | 26.3% | 48% | +7.2 | −9 |
 Manchester Utdv Aston Villa | 37% | 28% | 35% | 43.7% | 25.6% | 30.7% | −6.7 | +4.3 |
Market columns above are already vig-free. There are no favourite flips this round, but there is a clear pattern. In all four matches with an away favourite the market is more confident in that side than SharpModels is: by 12 points on Liverpool at Crystal Palace, the widest gap, by nine on Chelsea at Sunderland, by eight on Bournemouth at Ipswich and by two on Manchester City at Nottingham. The second-widest gap goes the other way: SharpModels has Leeds ten points higher than the market at home to in-form Tottenham. The market is clearly firmer on two home sides, Fulham and Manchester Utd, by five and seven points. Everton v Coventry, Arsenal v Hull and Nottingham v Manchester City are the closest, within 2.5 points on every outcome.
Match by match
Everton vs Coventry Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 8:00 PM GMT
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton |
54% | 56.5% | −2.5 |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | +1 |
| Coventry |
21% | 19.5% | +1.5 |
Everton are seventh on 13 points after a double over Newcastle in a week: 3–1 in the EFL Cup, then 1–0 away in the league on Monday night, which followed a 2–0 defeat at Arsenal. Coventry are 16th on nine points but beat Sunderland 3–1 last round, the result that backed SharpModels in one of Round 9's two favourite flips. Everton are rated 66 points higher (1894 to 1828), so both sides make Everton clear favourites: 54% on SharpModels and 57% on the market. The two have not met since 2010.
Leeds vs Tottenham Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · 12:30 PM GMT
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds |
46% | 36.3% | +9.7 |
| Draw | 27% | 28.4% | −1.4 |
| Tottenham |
27% | 35.3% | −8.3 |
The second-widest gap. Leeds are 12th on 11 points and have not won in five league games, three draws and two defeats; they lost 2–0 at Bournemouth last round. Their five draws are joint-most in the league with Brentford and Hull, and they have conceded eight, the third-fewest. Tottenham are ninth and have won three straight, the latest 2–0 over Crystal Palace, the widest gap of Round 9, where the market's faith in Spurs' form was rewarded. The ratings are close (Leeds 1886, Spurs 1872), so home advantage makes Leeds 46% favourites on SharpModels. The market agrees on the favourite but has Leeds ten points lower, at 36%, with Spurs only a point behind. Tottenham lead the all-time record 6 wins to 1 from eight meetings; the most recent finished 1–1 at Tottenham in May.
Arsenal vs Hull Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · 3:00 PM GMT
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal |
86% | 84.5% | +1.5 |
| Draw | 9% | 11% | −2 |
| Hull |
5% | 4.5% | +0.5 |
Arsenal are top with 24 points from nine games, the best rating in the league (2088) and the fewest goals conceded (five). They have won four straight league games, the latest 1–0 at Liverpool. Hull are 11th and have lost only twice, but their 1738 rating is the lowest in the league, 350 points below Arsenal's; they drew 2–2 with Ipswich last round. Close agreement at the top end: 86% for Arsenal on SharpModels and 85% on the market. Arsenal have won six of the seven meetings, with one draw; the last was 2–0 at Arsenal in 2017. Arsenal play at Slavia Prague in the Champions League on Wednesday night, after these figures.
Fulham vs Newcastle Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · 3:00 PM GMT
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham |
42% | 47.3% | −5.3 |
| Draw | 28% | 25.4% | +2.6 |
| Newcastle |
31% | 27.4% | +3.6 |
Fulham are 15th on nine points but unbeaten in three league games: 1–0 wins over Hull and at Coventry, then a 1–1 draw at Aston Villa last round. Newcastle are 13th on 11 points and lost 1–0 at home to Everton on Monday, their third defeat in four league games. Newcastle are rated 19 points higher (1889 to 1870), which home advantage cancels: SharpModels makes Fulham narrow 42% favourites. The market agrees on the favourite and is five points firmer, at 47%. Newcastle lead the all-time record 10 wins to 9 with three draws from 22 meetings, but Fulham have won three of the last five, most recently 2–0 at home in May.
Nottingham vs Manchester City Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · 5:30 PM GMT
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham |
21% | 20.4% | +0.6 |
| Draw | 25% | 23.4% | +1.6 |
| Manchester City |
54% | 56.2% | −2.2 |
Nottingham are 19th with one win from nine and six goals, the fewest in the league; they lost 2–0 at Brentford last round and have one point from their last four games. Manchester City are second on 21 points, but have lost their last two league games, their only defeats so far, 2–1 at Aston Villa and 1–0 at home to Brighton. City are rated 190 points higher (2042 to 1852). Close agreement, within 2.2 points on every outcome: City 54% on SharpModels and 56% on the market. City lead the all-time record 4 wins to 1 with two draws from seven meetings; the most recent finished 2–2 at City in March. City play at RB Leipzig on Wednesday night.
Brighton vs Brentford Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 2:00 PM GMT
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton |
53% | 49.3% | +3.7 |
| Draw | 25% | 25.4% | −0.4 |
| Brentford |
22% | 25.4% | −3.4 |
Brighton are third on 19 points, with the most goals (24) and the best goal difference (+17), and won 1–0 at Manchester City last round. Their rating has risen 58 points this season, more than any other Premier League side, to 1971, third-best in the league. Brentford are sixth and have lost only once, with five draws, and beat Nottingham 2–0 last round. A 63-point ratings gap (to 1908) plus home advantage makes Brighton 53% favourites on SharpModels, four points above the market's 49%. Brighton lead the all-time record 9 wins to 5 with five draws from 19 meetings, and won the most recent, 2–0 at Brentford in February.
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 2:00 PM GMT
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace |
26% | 17.4% | +8.6 |
| Draw | 27% | 22.4% | +4.6 |
| Liverpool |
48% | 60.2% | −12.2 |
The widest gap of the round. Crystal Palace are 18th on seven points, have lost three straight league games without scoring (5–0 at Brighton, 2–0 at home to Newcastle, 2–0 at Tottenham) and have conceded 21, the most in the league. Liverpool are fifth on 15 points and lost 1–0 at home to Arsenal last round. Liverpool are rated 143 points higher (1968 to 1825) and are favourites on both sides, but the market is far more confident: 60% against SharpModels' 48%, with Palace at 17% against 26%. Liverpool lead the all-time record 16 wins to 6 with four draws from 26 meetings and won the most recent, 3–1 at home in April. Liverpool play at Fenerbahce in the Champions League on Wednesday and Palace host Hoffenheim in the Europa League on Thursday, both after these figures.
Ipswich vs Bournemouth Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 2:00 PM GMT
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich |
31% | 24.6% | +6.4 |
| Draw | 28% | 25.6% | +2.4 |
| Bournemouth |
42% | 49.7% | −7.7 |
Ipswich are 14th on 11 points and drew their last two, 1–1 with Nottingham and 2–2 at Hull, but have conceded 18, the second-most in the league. Bournemouth are eighth and have won three straight league games, 2–0 over Sunderland, 3–0 at Manchester Utd and 2–0 over Leeds; their rating is up 46 points this season to 1935, sixth-best. A 102-point gap (to 1833) makes Bournemouth favourites away from home, 42% on SharpModels and 50% on the market. One win each with four draws from six meetings; Ipswich won the most recent, 2–1 at Bournemouth in April 2025. Bournemouth play at Sparta Prague in the Europa League on Thursday.
Sunderland vs Chelsea Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 2:00 PM GMT
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland |
33% | 25.8% | +7.2 |
| Draw | 28% | 26.3% | +1.7 |
| Chelsea |
39% | 48% | −9 |
Sunderland are bottom with five points, one win from nine and seven goals, the second-fewest; they lost 3–1 at Coventry last round. Chelsea are fourth on 16 points and beat Manchester Utd 2–0. Chelsea are rated 81 points higher (1921 to 1840), and both sides make them favourites, but by different margins: 39% on SharpModels, 48% on the market. Chelsea lead the all-time record 11 wins to 5 with one draw from 17 meetings, but Sunderland have won three of the last five, most recently 2–1 at home in May. Sunderland host Dinamo Zagreb in the Europa League on Thursday.
Manchester Utd vs Aston Villa Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 4:30 PM GMT
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester Utd |
37% | 43.7% | −6.7 |
| Draw | 28% | 25.6% | +2.4 |
| Aston Villa |
35% | 30.7% | +4.3 |
Manchester Utd are 17th with one league win from nine and have lost their last two, 3–0 at home to Bournemouth and 2–0 at Chelsea. Their rating has fallen 68 points this season, more than any other Premier League side, though it picked up with a 3–2 Champions League win over Roma on Tuesday. Aston Villa are tenth and drew 1–1 with Fulham last round, then lost 3–0 at Barcelona on Tuesday. Villa are rated 51 points higher (1943 to 1892), which home advantage roughly cancels: SharpModels has United narrowly ahead, 37% to 35%. The market agrees on the favourite but is seven points firmer, at 44%. United lead the all-time record 18 wins to 3 with six draws from 27 meetings, and won the most recent, 3–1 at home in March.