This is the sixth entry in a season-long watching brief comparing SharpModels' own ratings against the market, game by game. Week 5 was a split decision: the market picked 10 winners to the model's 9 (the model had Bears at Packers at exactly 50–50), but the model was closer on average across the week. Of the last entry's five widest gaps, three went the model's way: Tampa Bay won in Dallas, Minnesota won in New Orleans and New England beat Las Vegas 45–17. The market was right that Jacksonville would beat Philadelphia in London and that Cincinnati would win in Miami. Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami and Minnesota have the week off. Market prices for the Sunday and Monday games were refreshed on Saturday morning, October 17; where a price has moved since Wednesday the text says so.
A gap between model and market is worth chasing, not noise to shrug off. SharpModels' ratings are built purely from what happens on the field, so unlike the market they carry no offseason or injury news, only real results. Model probabilities are taken from the SharpModels matchups page; market probabilities are two-sided prices normalised to sum to 100. Away team is shown first, and diff is model minus market on the away side, so a negative number means the market is higher on the away team than the model is.
Week 6 Slate
| Game | Model away | Model home | Market away | Market home | Diff (away) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks@ Broncos | 52% | 48% | 56% | 44% | −4 |
| Texansvs Jaguars | 41% | 59% | 44% | 56% | −3 |
| Bears@ Falcons | 53% | 47% | 51% | 49% | +2 |
| Ravens@ Browns | 66% | 34% | 62% | 38% | +4 |
| Panthers@ Eagles | 27% | 73% | 62% | 38% | −35 |
| Titans@ Colts | 21% | 79% | 26% | 74% | −5 |
| Jets@ Patriots | 16% | 84% | 24% | 76% | −8 |
| Saints@ Giants | 35% | 65% | 50% | 50% | −15 |
| Steelers@ Buccaneers | 52% | 48% | 56% | 44% | −4 |
| Cardinals@ Rams | 16% | 84% | 12% | 88% | +4 |
| Bills@ Raiders | 77% | 23% | 68% | 32% | +9 |
| Chargers@ Chiefs | 24% | 76% | 22% | 78% | +2 |
| Cowboys@ Packers | 31% | 69% | 48% | 52% | −17 |
| Commanders@ 49ers | 17% | 83% | 22% | 78% | −5 |
Mean absolute deviation is 8.4 points and the median is 4.5, with 5 of 14 games disagreeing by more than 5. The home-field lean is back: the signed mean is −5.4, and the market is higher on the away team than the model in 9 of 14 games. The widest gaps all have the same shape, a home favourite on the model that the market rates far lower, and two of them come down to quarterbacks the rating cannot see. Panthers at Eagles is now the widest gap of the season after Jalen Hurts was ruled out on Friday: the market has swung to make Carolina favourites. The Giants with their backup quarterback and Green Bay with injuries on its offensive line complete the list.
Match by match
Seahawks @ Broncos Thu, Oct 15, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 52% | 56% | −4 |
| Broncos | 48% | 44% | +4 |
Seattle lost for the second time, 29–32 at home to San Francisco as a 66% favourite (down 18 to 1702), but it is still the top-rated team in football. Denver won 23–17 at the Chargers (up 15 to 1623, 5th). The 79-point ratings gap is almost exactly cancelled out by home field, so the model has a near coin flip, Seattle 52%. The market is a little firmer on the Seahawks at 56%. Result: Denver won 17–14 on Thursday night.
Texans vs Jaguars Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · 9:30 AM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 41% | 44% | −3 |
| Jaguars | 59% | 56% | +3 |
Played at a neutral site, Wembley Stadium in London, the second straight London game for Jacksonville after last week's 19–17 win over Philadelphia at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (up 10 to 1623, 6th). Houston finally won, 26–3 at Tennessee (up 16 to 1547, 13th), but is 1–4 and has lost 77 rating points this season. With no home edge, the 76-point gap makes the Jaguars 59% favourites on the model. The market agrees within a few points, at 56%.
Bears @ Falcons Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Falcons | 47% | 49% | −2 |
Chicago had the worst result of Week 5, routed 7–31 at Green Bay, which cost 32 points, the biggest fall of the week (down to 1536, 15th). Atlanta lost 23–30 at home to Baltimore (down 18 to 1450, 18th). Close agreement: Bears 53% on the model and 51% on the market, which had them at 53% on Wednesday.
Ravens @ Browns Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | 66% | 62% | +4 |
| Browns | 34% | 38% | −4 |
Baltimore is 4–1 after winning 30–23 at Atlanta (up 18 to 1601, 9th). Cleveland's three-game winning streak ended with a 12–17 loss at the Jets as a 55% favourite (down 20 to 1400, 26th). Lamar Jackson has been ruled out for a second straight week with a sprained ankle, so Tyler Huntley starts again. The market has eased from 68% to 62% on Baltimore since Wednesday and is now below the model's 66%. Huntley also started last week's win at Atlanta, which the rating already includes.
Panthers @ Eagles Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 27% | 62% | −35 |
| Eagles | 73% | 38% | +35 |
The widest gap of the week. Philadelphia has lost three straight, 7–27 at Chicago, 20–24 at home to the Rams and 17–19 to Jacksonville in London, and has fallen 49 points from its preseason rating to 1560 (12th). Carolina comes off its bye at 2–2 after beating Detroit 32–26 (1419, 24th). The rating still makes the Eagles clear home favourites at 73%. On Wednesday the market had the game dead even. On Friday the Eagles ruled out Jalen Hurts with a superficial blood clot, first found after the London game, leaving Tanner McKee as the backup, and the market has swung 12 points to make Carolina 62% favourites. DeVonta Smith is due back from his hamstring injury; Saquon Barkley is still out. The gap is now the widest of the season so far, and it is exactly the kind of news a rating built only on results cannot see.
Titans @ Colts Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 21% | 26% | −5 |
| Colts | 79% | 74% | +5 |
Tennessee is 0–5 after a 3–26 home loss to Houston and is still the lowest-rated team at 1225. Indianapolis lost 22–34 at Pittsburgh (down 19 to 1442, 20th). The model makes the Colts 79% favourites; the market is a little less sure at 74%.
Jets @ Patriots Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | 16% | 24% | −8 |
| Patriots | 84% | 76% | +8 |
New England has won two straight since its 6–35 loss in Jacksonville, the latest a 45–17 rout of Las Vegas (up 14 to 1612, 7th). The Jets beat Cleveland 17–12 for their second win (up 20 to 1335, but still 30th). A 277-point ratings gap makes the Patriots 84% favourites on the model. The market has them at 76%.
Saints @ Giants Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | 35% | 50% | −15 |
| Giants | 65% | 50% | +15 |
On Wednesday the market made the Saints favourites here; it now has the game level. New York is 3–1–1 after a 27–27 tie at Washington (1421, 23rd), with Jameis Winston starting while Jaxson Dart is on injured reserve, facing the team he used to play for. New Orleans has lost three straight, the latest 13–23 at home to Minnesota (down 13 to 1359, 28th), and Tyler Shough has been sacked 13 times. The model makes the Giants 65% home favourites; the market had the Saints at 51% on Wednesday and now has it at 50–50. The model has rated the Winston-led Giants above the market two weeks running and come out ahead both times: a 36–24 win over Arizona that the market expected Arizona to win, and last week's tie as road underdogs.
Steelers @ Buccaneers Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 52% | 56% | −4 |
| Buccaneers | 48% | 44% | +4 |
Pittsburgh beat Indianapolis 34–22 (up 19 to 1527, 16th). Tampa Bay won for the first time, 24–16 at Dallas as a 37% underdog, the second-biggest gain of Week 5 (up 28 to 1445, 19th), in a game where the market had expected the Cowboys to win easily with Baker Mayfield out. The model has Pittsburgh as a slight road favourite at 52%; the market is a little firmer at 56%.
Cardinals @ Rams Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · 4:05 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 16% | 12% | +4 |
| Rams | 84% | 88% | −4 |
Arizona lost 21–45 at home to Detroit (down 22 to 1332, 31st), and the Rams lost 34–37 to Buffalo on Monday night (down 14 to 1606, 8th). Close agreement, with the market a few points firmer: Rams 84–88%.
Bills @ Raiders Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 77% | 68% | +9 |
| Raiders | 23% | 32% | −9 |
Buffalo won a Monday night shootout at the Rams 37–34 (up 14 to 1691, 2nd). Las Vegas has lost two straight, the latest 17–45 at New England (down 14 to 1376, 27th). A 315-point ratings gap makes the Bills 77% favourites on the model; the market has them at 68%, perhaps pricing a growing Buffalo injury list: right tackle Spencer Brown left Monday's game with a back injury, and the Bills were already missing several starters. Last week the market was 16 points higher on the Raiders than the model was, and New England won by 28.
Chargers @ Chiefs Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | 24% | 22% | +2 |
| Chiefs | 76% | 78% | −2 |
The Chargers are 0–5 after a 17–23 home loss to Denver and have lost 107 rating points since preseason, the most in the league (now 1425, 22nd). Kansas City comes off its bye at 4–0 (1597, 10th). Close agreement: Chiefs 76–78%.
Cowboys @ Packers Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · 8:20 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 31% | 48% | −17 |
| Packers | 69% | 52% | +17 |
Green Bay made the biggest ratings gain of Week 5, routing Chicago 31–7 (up 32 to 1538, 14th) as Jordan Love completed 25 of 31 passes for 367 yards. Dallas lost 16–24 at home to Tampa Bay as a 63% favourite (down 28 to 1436, 21st). The model makes the Packers 69% home favourites; the market has them at only 52%. The likely reason is the Green Bay injury report, which could be missing several starters, including offensive linemen Aaron Banks and Jacob Monk and receiver Jayden Reed.
Commanders @ 49ers Mon, Oct 19, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | 17% | 22% | −5 |
| 49ers | 83% | 78% | +5 |
San Francisco is 5–0, one of two unbeaten NFC teams with Minnesota, after winning 32–29 at Seattle as a 34% underdog, and has gained 96 points this season, the most in the league (now 1664, 3rd). Washington tied the Giants 27–27 (1404, 25th). The model makes the 49ers 83% favourites; the market has them at 78%.