This is the eighth entry in a season-long watching brief comparing SharpModels' own ratings against the market, game by game. Week 7 went clearly to the market: it picked 10 winners to the model's 7 (the model had Patriots at Bears at 50–50) and was closer on average across the week. Three of the last entry's four widest gaps went the market's way. It was right that Dallas would win in Philadelphia with Tanner McKee starting for the Eagles, right that Cincinnati would win in Baltimore without Lamar Jackson, and right to be less sure of San Francisco, who lost in Atlanta. The model's one success among them was Miami at the Jets, where both had the Jets favoured but the model's 46% on the Dolphins was closer. The model's calls on Seattle over Kansas City and on Minnesota and Denver came good. Houston, New Orleans, the Giants and San Francisco have the week off. Market prices were taken on the morning of Thursday, October 29, before the Thursday night game.
A gap between model and market is worth chasing, not noise to shrug off. SharpModels' ratings are built purely from what happens on the field, so unlike the market they carry no offseason or injury news, only real results. Model probabilities are taken from the SharpModels matchups page; market probabilities are two-sided prices normalised to sum to 100. Away team is shown first, and diff is model minus market on the away side, so a negative number means the market is higher on the away team than the model is.
Week 8 Slate
| Game | Model away | Model home | Market away | Market home | Diff (away) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers@ Packers | 28% | 72% | 36% | 64% | −8 |
| Cardinals@ Cowboys | 29% | 71% | 26% | 74% | +3 |
| Falcons@ Buccaneers | 42% | 58% | 44% | 56% | −2 |
| Ravens@ Bills | 26% | 74% | 38% | 62% | −12 |
| Titans@ Bengals | 14% | 86% | 17% | 83% | −3 |
| Browns@ Steelers | 28% | 72% | 36% | 64% | −8 |
| Vikings@ Lions | 50% | 50% | 38% | 62% | +12 |
| Colts@ Jaguars | 22% | 78% | 20% | 80% | +2 |
| Raiders@ Jets | 47% | 53% | 47% | 53% | 0 |
| Chargers@ Rams | 22% | 78% | 27% | 73% | −5 |
| Chiefs@ Broncos | 36% | 64% | 53% | 47% | −17 |
| Patriots@ Dolphins | 69% | 31% | 76% | 24% | −7 |
| Eagles@ Commanders | 53% | 47% | 31% | 69% | +22 |
| Bears@ Seahawks | 28% | 72% | 38% | 62% | −10 |
Mean absolute deviation is 7.9 points and the median is 7.5, with 8 of 14 games disagreeing by more than 5. The signed mean is −2.4, and the market is higher on the away team than the model in 9 of 14 games, including four the model rates as clear home wins: Baltimore at Buffalo, Chicago at Seattle, Cleveland at Pittsburgh and Carolina at Green Bay. The two widest gaps are favourite flips. Eagles at Commanders is the same quarterback story as last week's widest gap, and Chiefs at Broncos is a rematch of Kansas City's Week 1 win. Next come Ravens at Bills, with Lamar Jackson due back, and Vikings at Lions, where the model has a coin flip and the market leans to Detroit, both at 12 points. Raiders at Jets is the closest game, with model and market level at 53% on the Jets.
Match by match
Panthers @ Packers Thu, Oct 29, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 28% | 36% | −8 |
| Packers | 72% | 64% | +8 |
Thursday night. Carolina had the biggest fall of Week 7, losing 13–43 at home to Tampa Bay as a 61% favourite (down 42 to 1413, 23rd), a week after its 25–14 win in Philadelphia. The Panthers are 3–3. Green Bay lost 17–20 at Detroit (down 11 to 1542, 15th) and is 4–3. A 129-point ratings gap plus home field makes the Packers 72% favourites on the model; the market has them at 64%.
Cardinals @ Cowboys Sun, Nov 1, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 29% | 26% | +3 |
| Cowboys | 71% | 74% | −3 |
Dallas won 38–21 in Philadelphia on Monday night, last week's widest gap and the market's best call: it made the Cowboys 65% favourites while the model had them at 31% (up 40 to 1461, 20th). Arizona lost 16–30 at home to Denver (down 14 to 1337, 30th) and is 2–5. Close agreement: Cowboys 71% on the model and 74% on the market.
Falcons @ Buccaneers Sun, Nov 1, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 42% | 44% | −2 |
| Buccaneers | 58% | 56% | +2 |
Both teams pulled off upsets in Week 7. Tampa Bay won 43–13 at Carolina as a 39% underdog, the biggest ratings gain of the week (up 42 to 1467, 18th), though it is still 2–5. Atlanta beat San Francisco 29–20 as a 30% underdog (up 32 to 1462, 19th) and is 3–4. The two are five points apart, so home field decides it: Buccaneers 58% on the model and 56% on the market.
Ravens @ Bills Sun, Nov 1, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | 26% | 38% | −12 |
| Bills | 74% | 62% | +12 |
Lamar Jackson is due back. He practised in full on Wednesday for the first time since injuring his ankle in Week 4, after missing three games. Baltimore went 1–2 with Tyler Huntley at quarterback, and the 13–35 home loss to Cincinnati as a 65% favourite cost 41 points (down to 1542, 14th). Buffalo comes off its bye at 5–1 after winning 33–30 at Las Vegas (1697, 2nd). The model makes the Bills 74% favourites; the market has them at 62%. A rating built only on results has spent three weeks marking the Ravens down without Jackson and cannot see him coming back; the market can.
Titans @ Bengals Sun, Nov 1, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 14% | 17% | −3 |
| Bengals | 86% | 83% | +3 |
Cincinnati won 35–13 in Baltimore as a 35% underdog, a game the market called (up 41 to 1561, 12th). The Bengals have gained 83 points this season, second only to Minnesota. Tennessee lost 24–27 at home to Cleveland (down 11 to 1245) and at 1–6 is still the lowest-rated team in football. Close agreement: Bengals 86% on the model and 83% on the market.
Browns @ Steelers Sun, Nov 1, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 28% | 36% | −8 |
| Steelers | 72% | 64% | +8 |
Cleveland is 5–2 after winning 27–24 at Tennessee (up 11 to 1429, 21st), and it beat Pittsburgh 27–24 at home in Week 4 as a 43% underdog. The Steelers have won three straight since, the latest 16–10 over New Orleans in Paris (up 12 to 1559, 13th), and are also 5–2. The model rates Pittsburgh 130 points higher and makes it a 72% home favourite; the market, with the records level and the Browns winning the first meeting, has the Steelers at 64%.
Vikings @ Lions Sun, Nov 1, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | 50% | 38% | +12 |
| Lions | 50% | 62% | −12 |
Minnesota is the league's only unbeaten team at 6–0 after beating Indianapolis 16–10 (up 7 to 1653, 3rd), and it has gained 87 points this season, the most of any team. But four of the six wins were by a touchdown or less. Detroit beat Green Bay 20–17 (up 11 to 1592, 9th) and is 4–2. The Vikings' 61-point ratings edge cancels home field almost exactly, so the model has a coin flip; the market makes the Lions 62% favourites. The injury reports don't explain the gap: running back Aaron Jones and guard Joe Huber (both knee) missed Wednesday's practice for Minnesota, and Jahmyr Gibbs (shoulder) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) missed it for Detroit.
Colts @ Jaguars Sun, Nov 1, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | 22% | 20% | +2 |
| Jaguars | 78% | 80% | −2 |
Jacksonville comes off its bye at 4–2 after losing 31–34 to Houston in London (1607, 6th). Indianapolis has lost three straight, the latest 10–16 at Minnesota (down 7 to 1403, 25th), and is 2–5. Close agreement: Jaguars 78% on the model and 80% on the market.
Raiders @ Jets Sun, Nov 1, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Jets | 53% | 53% | 0 |
The closest game of the week: model and market both make the Jets 53% favourites. Las Vegas has lost four straight, the latest 21–35 at home to the Rams (down 17 to 1352, 29th). The Jets lost 25–28 at home to Miami (down 15 to 1313, 31st). The Raiders are 3–4 and the Jets 2–5.
Chargers @ Rams Sun, Nov 1, 2026 · 4:05 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | 22% | 27% | −5 |
| Rams | 78% | 73% | +5 |
The Chargers are the league's only winless team at 0–6, and come off their bye after losing 6–22 at Kansas City (1412, 24th). They have lost 121 points since the preseason, the second-biggest fall after Philadelphia's. The Rams won 35–21 at Las Vegas (up 17 to 1605, 7th). The model makes the Rams 78% favourites; the market has them at 73%.
Chiefs @ Broncos Sun, Nov 1, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 36% | 53% | −17 |
| Broncos | 64% | 47% | +17 |
The second-widest gap of the week, and one of two favourite flips. Denver has won three straight, the latest 30–16 at Arizona (up 14 to 1652, 4th), and is 5–2. Kansas City lost 3–20 at Seattle (down 20 to 1592, 10th) and is 5–1. The Broncos are rated 60 points higher and at home, so the model makes them 64% favourites. The market has the Chiefs at 53%. Kansas City won the first meeting 31–10 at home in Week 1, when the model had Denver at 55%. Patrick Mahomes was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, while Denver's Jaylen Waddle (chest), Zach Allen (hamstring) and Talanoa Hufanga (ankle) did not practise.
Patriots @ Dolphins Sun, Nov 1, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 69% | 76% | −7 |
| Dolphins | 31% | 24% | +7 |
New England lost 24–30 at Chicago, where the model had a coin flip and the market's 59% on the Bears proved right (down 19 to 1599, 8th); the Patriots are 4–3. Miami won for the first time, 28–25 at the Jets (up 15 to 1371, 28th), and is 1–5. The model makes the Patriots 69% road favourites; the market is firmer at 76%.
Eagles @ Commanders Sun, Nov 1, 2026 · 8:20 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | 53% | 31% | +22 |
| Commanders | 47% | 69% | −22 |
The widest gap of the week, and a favourite flip. Philadelphia has lost five straight, the latest 21–38 at home to Dallas (down 40 to 1484, 17th), and has lost 125 points since the preseason, more than any other team. Washington comes off its bye at 1–4–1 after losing 17–23 at San Francisco (1397, 26th). The rating still has the Eagles 87 points ahead, enough for a 53% road edge on the model. The market makes Washington 69% favourites. Jalen Hurts is out for the season, so Tanner McKee is expected to start again, and Saquon Barkley (hamstring and back) and DeVonta Smith (hamstring) were listed as non-participants on Wednesday's report, an estimate because the Eagles held only a walkthrough. For Washington, Jayden Daniels, who dislocated his left elbow in Week 2, was a full participant. The same story produced last week's widest gap, and the market was right.
Bears @ Seahawks Mon, Nov 2, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 28% | 38% | −10 |
| Seahawks | 72% | 62% | +10 |
Monday night. Seattle beat Kansas City 20–3, a game where the model's 66% on the Seahawks beat the market's 57% (up 20 to 1707), and it is now the top-rated team in football despite a 4–3 record. Chicago has won two straight, the latest 30–24 over New England (up 19 to 1577, 11th), and is 5–2. The model makes the Seahawks 72% favourites; the market has them at 62%.