This is the seventh entry in a season-long watching brief comparing SharpModels' own ratings against the market, game by game. Week 6 went to the market: it picked 8 winners to the model's 7 (it had Saints at Giants at 50–50) and was closer on average across the week. It was a week of upsets that caught both out: Tennessee won at Indianapolis, Arizona won at the Rams, Cleveland beat Baltimore, Denver beat Seattle and Houston beat Jacksonville in London. Of the last entry's four widest gaps, two went each way. The market was right that Carolina would win in Philadelphia without Jalen Hurts, and its 50–50 on the Saints beat the model's 65% on the Giants. The model was right that Green Bay would beat Dallas comfortably and that Buffalo would win in Las Vegas. Buffalo, Jacksonville, the Chargers and Washington have the week off. Market prices were taken on the morning of Thursday, October 22, before the Thursday night game.
A gap between model and market is worth chasing, not noise to shrug off. SharpModels' ratings are built purely from what happens on the field, so unlike the market they carry no offseason or injury news, only real results. Model probabilities are taken from the SharpModels matchups page; market probabilities are two-sided prices normalised to sum to 100. Away team is shown first, and diff is model minus market on the away side, so a negative number means the market is higher on the away team than the model is.
Week 7 Slate
| Game | Model away | Model home | Market away | Market home | Diff (away) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots@ Bears | 50% | 50% | 41% | 59% | +9 |
| Steelersvs Saints | 68% | 32% | 63% | 37% | +5 |
| 49ers@ Falcons | 70% | 30% | 59% | 41% | +11 |
| Bengals@ Ravens | 35% | 65% | 52% | 48% | −17 |
| Buccaneers@ Panthers | 39% | 61% | 40% | 60% | −1 |
| Browns@ Titans | 62% | 38% | 55% | 45% | +7 |
| Giants@ Texans | 25% | 75% | 20% | 80% | +5 |
| Colts@ Vikings | 19% | 81% | 29% | 71% | −10 |
| Dolphins@ Jets | 46% | 54% | 34% | 66% | +12 |
| Broncos@ Cardinals | 75% | 25% | 67% | 33% | +8 |
| Packers@ Lions | 39% | 61% | 39% | 61% | 0 |
| Rams@ Raiders | 68% | 32% | 66% | 34% | +2 |
| Chiefs@ Seahawks | 34% | 66% | 43% | 57% | −9 |
| Cowboys@ Eagles | 31% | 69% | 65% | 35% | −34 |
Mean absolute deviation is 9.3 points and the median is 8.5, with 9 of 14 games disagreeing by more than 5. For once the home-field lean has gone: the signed mean is −0.9, and the market is higher on the away team than the model in only 5 of 14 games. Instead the model is the more confident side on all five teams it makes away favourites: San Francisco, Denver, Cleveland, Pittsburgh and the Rams. The two widest gaps are the familiar kind, though, and both are favourite flips driven by quarterbacks: Cowboys at Eagles, where Tanner McKee starts again for the injured Hurts, and Bengals at Ravens, where Lamar Jackson's ankle is still in doubt. Packers at Lions is the closest game, with model and market level at 61% on Detroit.
Match by match
Patriots @ Bears Thu, Oct 22, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 50% | 41% | +9 |
| Bears | 50% | 59% | −9 |
Thursday night. New England has won three straight, the latest 26–19 over the Jets as an 84% favourite (up 7 to 1618, 6th). Chicago bounced back from its rout at Green Bay by winning 31–23 at Atlanta (up 21 to 1557, 13th). Both teams are 4–2. The Patriots are rated 61 points higher, which home field almost exactly cancels, so the model has a true coin flip. The market makes the Bears 59% favourites. The Patriots' injury report is the likely reason: both starting guards, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown, are ruled out, along with cornerback Carlton Davis III, and right tackle Morgan Moses is questionable. A.J. Brown is off the injury report.
Steelers vs Saints Sun, Oct 25, 2026 · 9:30 AM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 68% | 63% | +5 |
| Saints | 32% | 37% | −5 |
Played at a neutral site, the Stade de France in Paris, with the Saints as the designated home team. Pittsburgh has won two straight, the latest 26–19 at Tampa Bay (up 20 to 1547, 15th). New Orleans ended a three-game losing run by winning 34–27 at the Giants as a 35% underdog on the model (up 27 to 1386, 27th). With no home edge, a 161-point ratings gap makes the Steelers 68% favourites. The market agrees on the favourite but is a little less sure, at 63%. Last week's Saints win went the market's way: it had the game at 50–50 while the model favoured the Giants.
49ers @ Falcons Sun, Oct 25, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 70% | 59% | +11 |
| Falcons | 30% | 41% | −11 |
San Francisco is 6–0 after beating Washington 23–17 on Monday night and has gained 103 rating points this season, the most in the league (up 7 to 1671, 3rd). Atlanta has lost two straight, the latest 23–31 at home to Chicago (down 21 to 1429, 19th). The model makes the 49ers 70% road favourites; the market has them at 59%. The difference is likely the 49ers' injury list: receiver Mike Evans has Achilles tendinitis and is likely to miss the game, and Nick Bosa (calf) and Deebo Samuel (hamstring) were among nine players who missed Wednesday's practice.
Bengals @ Ravens Sun, Oct 25, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | 35% | 52% | −17 |
| Ravens | 65% | 48% | +17 |
The second-widest gap of the week, and one of two favourite flips. Cincinnati comes off its bye at 3–2 after winning 31–24 in Miami (1520, 17th). Baltimore lost 10–13 at Cleveland as a 66% favourite (down 18 to 1583, 10th), with Tyler Huntley starting for the second straight week. The model makes the Ravens 65% home favourites; the market has the Bengals at 52%. Lamar Jackson returned to practice on Wednesday as a limited participant, but it is still unclear whether he will play on his sprained left ankle, and the price suggests the market is not counting on a fully fit Jackson. Last week the market was a little lower on Baltimore than the model, and the Ravens lost.
Buccaneers @ Panthers Sun, Oct 25, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | 39% | 40% | −1 |
| Panthers | 61% | 60% | +1 |
Carolina made the biggest ratings gain of Week 6, winning 25–14 at Philadelphia as a 27% underdog on the model (up 36 to 1455, 18th); the market was right about that one. Tampa Bay is 1–5 after a 19–26 home loss to Pittsburgh (down 20 to 1425, 20th) and has lost 61 points this season. Close agreement: Panthers 61% on the model and 60% on the market.
Browns @ Titans Sun, Oct 25, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 62% | 55% | +7 |
| Titans | 38% | 45% | −7 |
Cleveland is 4–2 after beating Baltimore 13–10 as a 34% underdog (up 18 to 1418, 22nd). Tennessee finally won, 26–20 at Indianapolis as a 21% underdog (up 31 to 1256), but it is still the lowest-rated team in football. A 162-point ratings gap outweighs home field, so the model makes the Browns 62% road favourites. The market agrees on the favourite but has them at only 55%.
Giants @ Texans Sun, Oct 25, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 25% | 20% | +5 |
| Texans | 75% | 80% | −5 |
The Giants lost 27–34 at home to New Orleans as a 65% favourite (down 27 to 1394, 26th), ending a run of two weeks in which the model had rated the Winston-led Giants above the market and come out ahead. Houston has won two straight, the latest a 34–31 win over Jacksonville in London (up 16 to 1564, 12th), but it is 2–4 and has lost 61 points this season. The model makes the Texans 75% favourites; the market is firmer at 80%.
Colts @ Vikings Sun, Oct 25, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | 19% | 29% | −10 |
| Vikings | 81% | 71% | +10 |
Minnesota comes off its bye as one of three unbeaten teams, with San Francisco and Kansas City, after winning 23–13 at New Orleans (5–0, 1646, 4th). Indianapolis had the second-biggest fall of Week 6, losing 20–26 at home to Tennessee as a 79% favourite (down 31 to 1411, 24th). A 235-point gap plus home field makes the Vikings 81% favourites on the model. The market has them at 71%.
Dolphins @ Jets Sun, Oct 25, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 46% | 34% | +12 |
| Jets | 54% | 66% | −12 |
The market is 12 points higher on the Jets than the model is, and there is no quarterback news to explain it: Malik Willis was listed as a full participant in Miami's Wednesday practice. Both teams are near the bottom of the ratings. Miami is 0–5 after losing 24–31 at home to Cincinnati before its bye (1356, 29th) and has lost 91 points this season. The Jets lost 19–26 at New England (down 7 to 1328, 31st). Miami started the season rated well above the Jets, 1447 to 1313, and four of its five defeats came against teams now rated in the top 17, so it is still 28 points ahead. Home field tips the model to the Jets at 54%; the market, looking at a winless team outscored by 62 points, has them at 66%.
Broncos @ Cardinals Sun, Oct 25, 2026 · 4:05 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 75% | 67% | +8 |
| Cardinals | 25% | 33% | −8 |
Denver has won two straight, the latest 17–14 over Seattle on Thursday night (up 14 to 1638, 5th). Arizona produced the biggest upset of Week 6 by the model's numbers, winning 18–16 at the Rams as a 16% underdog (up 18 to 1351, 30th). The model makes the Broncos 75% road favourites; the market has them at 67%.
Packers @ Lions Sun, Oct 25, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | 39% | 39% | 0 |
| Lions | 61% | 61% | 0 |
Green Bay has won three straight, the latest 23–13 over Dallas (up 15 to 1553, 14th), a game where the model's 69% on the Packers beat the market's 52%. Detroit comes off its bye after a 45–21 win at Arizona (1581, 11th). The closest game of the week: model and market both make the Lions 61% favourites.
Rams @ Raiders Sun, Oct 25, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Raiders | 32% | 34% | −2 |
The Rams lost a second straight game, 16–18 at home to Arizona as an 84% favourite (down 18 to 1588, 9th), and are 2–4, 50 points below their preseason rating. Las Vegas lost 30–33 at home to Buffalo, its third straight defeat after losses to Kansas City and New England (down 6 to 1370, 28th). Close agreement: Rams 68% on the model and 66% on the market.
Chiefs @ Seahawks Sun, Oct 25, 2026 · 8:20 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 34% | 43% | −9 |
| Seahawks | 66% | 57% | +9 |
Kansas City is 5–0 after beating the Chargers 22–6 (up 14 to 1611, 7th) and has gained 86 points this season. Seattle lost 14–17 at Denver (down 14 to 1688) and has lost three of its last four, but it is still rated second, behind only Buffalo, and 77 points above the Chiefs. Add home field and the model makes the Seahawks 66% favourites. The market, weighing a 5–0 record against a 3–3 one, has them at 57%.
Cowboys @ Eagles Mon, Oct 26, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 31% | 65% | −34 |
| Eagles | 69% | 35% | +34 |
The widest gap of the week, and almost as wide as last week's 35 points on the Eagles' game against Carolina. Philadelphia has lost four straight, the latest 14–25 at home to the Panthers, which cost 36 points, the biggest fall of Week 6 (down to 1524, 16th, 85 points below preseason). Dallas lost 13–23 at Green Bay (down 15 to 1421, 21st). Both teams are 2–4. The rating still makes the Eagles 69% home favourites; the market makes Dallas 65% favourites, a favourite flip. The reason is Jalen Hurts, who will miss the rest of the season after doctors found blood clots in his lungs, so Tanner McKee makes a second straight start. Saquon Barkley has missed the last two games with a hamstring strain. Last week the market's swing to Carolina after Hurts was ruled out proved right; a rating built only on results still cannot see a quarterback change.