Patriots @ Bears

NFL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Final Score: Patriots 24 - Bears 30
Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 8:15 PM ET
New England
Patriots
4-2 Rating 1618
Form: WLWWW
24 – 30
Model Probability
50%
50%
Projected margin: Chicago Bears +2.0
Chicago
Bears
4-2 Rating 1557
Form: LWWLW

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Patriots Bears
All-time wins 11 5
Last 5 meetings 4 1
Average points 23.1 17.9
Last meeting 19 3

Key Season Stats

Stat Patriots Bears
Games played 6 6
Avg points scored 22.7 25.0
Avg points conceded 18.8 19.8
Win percentage 67% 67%
Away win % / Home win % 33% 67%