Final Score: Patriots 0 - Bills 0
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET
Patriots @ Bills
NFL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Model Prediction Through Season
| Stat | Patriots | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| All-time wins | 68 | 44 |
| Last 5 meetings | 2 | 3 |
| Average points | 22.4 | 19.1 |
| Last meeting | 31 | 35 |
| Stat | Patriots | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Games played | 2 | 2 |
| Avg points scored | 15.0 | 38.5 |
| Avg points conceded | 8.0 | 31.0 |
| Win percentage | 50% | 100% |
| Away win % / Home win % | 0% | 100% |
Recent Results
Patriots
vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Sep 20, 2026 · Margin: +17 · Total: 23
20-3
@ Seattle Seahawks
Sep 9, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 23
10-13
vs Seattle Seahawks
Feb 8, 2026 · Margin: -16 · Total: 42
13-29
@ Denver Broncos
Jan 25, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 17
10-7
vs Houston Texans
Jan 18, 2026 · Margin: +12 · Total: 44
28-16
vs Los Angeles Chargers
Jan 11, 2026 · Margin: +13 · Total: 19
16-3
vs Miami Dolphins
Jan 4, 2026 · Margin: +28 · Total: 48
38-10
@ New York Jets
Dec 28, 2025 · Margin: +32 · Total: 52
42-10
@ Baltimore Ravens
Dec 21, 2025 · Margin: +4 · Total: 52
28-24
vs Buffalo Bills
Dec 14, 2025 · Margin: -4 · Total: 66
31-35
Bills
vs Detroit Lions
Sep 17, 2026 · Margin: +10 · Total: 72
41-31
@ Houston Texans
Sep 13, 2026 · Margin: +5 · Total: 67
36-31
@ Denver Broncos
Jan 17, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 63
30-33
@ Jacksonville Jaguars
Jan 11, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 51
27-24
vs New York Jets
Jan 4, 2026 · Margin: +27 · Total: 43
35-8
vs Philadelphia Eagles
Dec 28, 2025 · Margin: -1 · Total: 25
12-13
@ Cleveland Browns
Dec 21, 2025 · Margin: +3 · Total: 43
23-20
@ New England Patriots
Dec 14, 2025 · Margin: +4 · Total: 66
35-31
vs Cincinnati Bengals
Dec 7, 2025 · Margin: +5 · Total: 73
39-34
@ Pittsburgh Steelers
Nov 30, 2025 · Margin: +19 · Total: 33
26-7