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Matchups Teams Power Ratings Playoff Chances Simulator Strength of Schedule Standings Results Schedule Head-to-Head Archive
Final Score: Patriots 0 - Jaguars 0
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET

Patriots @ Jaguars

NFL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Patriots
1-1 Rating 1610
Form: WWLLW
Patriots
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Model Probability
48%
52%
Projected margin: Jacksonville Jaguars +2.0
Jaguars
1-1 Rating 1563
Form: WWLWL
Jaguars
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Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Full Playoff Chances

Patriots

Scenario PlayoffsDivisionConferenceTitle
Now 70%27%12%6%
If Win 82%34%15%7%
If Lose 58%20%8%4%

Jaguars

Scenario PlayoffsDivisionConferenceTitle
Now 64%47%8%4%
If Win 75%55%11%5%
If Lose 51%38%5%2%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Full head-to-head
Stat Patriots Jaguars
All-time wins 12 3
Last 5 meetings 3 2
Average points 27.5 17.7
Last meeting 16 32

Key Season Stats

Stat Patriots Jaguars
Games played 2 2
Avg points scored 15.0 23.5
Avg points conceded 8.0 15.0
Win percentage 50% 50%
Away win % / Home win % 0% 100%

Recent Results

Patriots

vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Sep 20, 2026 · Margin: +17 · Total: 23
20-3
@ Seattle Seahawks
Sep 9, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 23
10-13
vs Seattle Seahawks
Feb 8, 2026 · Margin: -16 · Total: 42
13-29
@ Denver Broncos
Jan 25, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 17
10-7
vs Houston Texans
Jan 18, 2026 · Margin: +12 · Total: 44
28-16
vs Los Angeles Chargers
Jan 11, 2026 · Margin: +13 · Total: 19
16-3
vs Miami Dolphins
Jan 4, 2026 · Margin: +28 · Total: 48
38-10
@ New York Jets
Dec 28, 2025 · Margin: +32 · Total: 52
42-10
@ Baltimore Ravens
Dec 21, 2025 · Margin: +4 · Total: 52
28-24
vs Buffalo Bills
Dec 14, 2025 · Margin: -4 · Total: 66
31-35

Jaguars

@ Denver Broncos
Sep 20, 2026 · Margin: -7 · Total: 33
13-20
vs Cleveland Browns
Sep 13, 2026 · Margin: +24 · Total: 44
34-10
vs Buffalo Bills
Jan 11, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 51
24-27
vs Tennessee Titans
Jan 4, 2026 · Margin: +34 · Total: 48
41-7
@ Indianapolis Colts
Dec 28, 2025 · Margin: +6 · Total: 40
23-17
@ Denver Broncos
Dec 21, 2025 · Margin: +14 · Total: 54
34-20
vs New York Jets
Dec 14, 2025 · Margin: +28 · Total: 68
48-20
vs Indianapolis Colts
Dec 7, 2025 · Margin: +17 · Total: 55
36-19
@ Tennessee Titans
Nov 30, 2025 · Margin: +22 · Total: 28
25-3
@ Arizona Cardinals
Nov 23, 2025 · Margin: +3 · Total: 51
27-24