Final Score: Dolphins 10 - Patriots 38
Sunday, January 4, 2026 at 4:25 PM ET
Dolphins @ Patriots
NFL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Model Prediction Through Season
| Stat | Dolphins | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| All-time wins | 60 | 53 |
| Last 5 meetings | 4 | 1 |
| Average points | 21.1 | 21.5 |
| Last meeting | 27 | 33 |
| Stat | Dolphins | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Games played | 16 | 16 |
| Avg points scored | 21.1 | 28.2 |
| Avg points conceded | 24.1 | 19.4 |
| Win percentage | 44% | 81% |
| Away win % / Home win % | 29% | 62% |
Recent Results
Dolphins
vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dec 28, 2025 · Margin: +3 · Total: 37
20-17
vs Cincinnati Bengals
Dec 21, 2025 · Margin: -24 · Total: 66
21-45
@ Pittsburgh Steelers
Dec 15, 2025 · Margin: -13 · Total: 43
15-28
@ New York Jets
Dec 7, 2025 · Margin: +24 · Total: 44
34-10
vs New Orleans Saints
Nov 30, 2025 · Margin: +4 · Total: 38
21-17
vs Washington Commanders
Nov 16, 2025 · Margin: +3 · Total: 29
16-13
vs Buffalo Bills
Nov 9, 2025 · Margin: +17 · Total: 43
30-13
vs Baltimore Ravens
Oct 30, 2025 · Margin: -22 · Total: 34
6-28
@ Atlanta Falcons
Oct 26, 2025 · Margin: +24 · Total: 44
34-10
@ Cleveland Browns
Oct 19, 2025 · Margin: -25 · Total: 37
6-31
Patriots
@ New York Jets
Dec 28, 2025 · Margin: +32 · Total: 52
42-10
@ Baltimore Ravens
Dec 21, 2025 · Margin: +4 · Total: 52
28-24
vs Buffalo Bills
Dec 14, 2025 · Margin: -4 · Total: 66
31-35
vs New York Giants
Dec 1, 2025 · Margin: +18 · Total: 48
33-15
@ Cincinnati Bengals
Nov 23, 2025 · Margin: +6 · Total: 46
26-20
vs New York Jets
Nov 13, 2025 · Margin: +13 · Total: 41
27-14
@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Nov 9, 2025 · Margin: +5 · Total: 51
28-23
vs Atlanta Falcons
Nov 2, 2025 · Margin: +1 · Total: 47
24-23
vs Cleveland Browns
Oct 26, 2025 · Margin: +19 · Total: 45
32-13
@ Tennessee Titans
Oct 19, 2025 · Margin: +18 · Total: 44
31-13