The NBA season starts on Tuesday, and with it a new entry in our watching brief: SharpModels' own ratings against the market, game by game, every week. Week 1 runs from Tuesday, October 20 to Sunday, October 25, with 43 games. That is too many for a paragraph each, so below is the full slate in one table, followed by the ten games where model and market disagree most.
The first week of the season is when the two should disagree most, and they do. SharpModels' ratings are built only from results. Over the summer every team is pulled a quarter of the way back towards the league average of 1500, but trades, signings, the draft and players returning from injury are invisible to the ratings until games are played. The market prices all of that in. So this week is less a test of who is right on a single game and more a map of how much the league has changed since June. Home court counts for a lot in the model: between two equally rated teams, the home side is a 63% favourite.
Model probabilities are taken from the SharpModels matchups pages; market probabilities are Kalshi prices (the midpoint of the best bid and offer), normalised to sum to 100 and taken on the evening of Monday, October 19. The away team is shown first, and diff is model minus market on the away side, so a negative number means the market is higher on the away team than the model is. 16 games, mostly at the weekend, had barely traded when the prices were taken, so their market columns are left blank and they are not in the figures below.
Week 1 slate
| Game | Model away | Model home | Market away | Market home | Diff (away) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Oct 20 | |||||
| Celtics@ Pistons | 36% | 64% | 52% | 48% | −16 |
| 76ers@ Knicks | 14% | 86% | 38% | 62% | −24 |
| Thunder@ Spurs | 36% | 64% | 46% | 54% | −10 |
| Wed, Oct 21 | |||||
| Hawks@ Magic | 34% | 66% | 45% | 55% | −11 |
| Bucks@ Wizards | 57% | 43% | 37% | 63% | +20 |
| Hornets@ Nets | 79% | 21% | 48% | 52% | +31 |
| Bulls@ Raptors | 17% | 83% | 23% | 77% | −6 |
| Timberwolves@ Heat | 47% | 53% | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Jazz@ Grizzlies | 38% | 62% | 49% | 51% | −11 |
| Pacers@ Pelicans | 28% | 72% | 60% | 40% | −32 |
| Mavericks@ Rockets | 15% | 85% | 24% | 76% | −9 |
| Warriors@ Lakers | 19% | 81% | 35% | 65% | −16 |
| Suns@ Trail Blazers | 34% | 66% | 40% | 60% | −6 |
| Kings@ Clippers | 19% | 81% | 39% | 61% | −20 |
| Thu, Oct 22 | |||||
| Cavaliers@ 76ers | 43% | 57% | 43% | 57% | 0 |
| Nuggets@ Thunder | 23% | 77% | 28% | 72% | −5 |
| Fri, Oct 23 | |||||
| Bulls@ Bucks | 35% | 65% | 45% | 55% | −10 |
| Timberwolves@ Magic | 40% | 60% | 72% | 28% | −32 |
| Mavericks@ Pacers | 41% | 59% | – | – | – |
| Raptors@ Wizards | 78% | 22% | 67% | 33% | +11 |
| Hawks@ Hornets | 29% | 71% | – | – | – |
| Knicks@ Celtics | 58% | 42% | 45% | 55% | +13 |
| Pistons@ Heat | 55% | 45% | – | – | – |
| Rockets@ Spurs | 19% | 81% | 30% | 70% | −11 |
| Pelicans@ Jazz | 55% | 45% | – | – | – |
| Grizzlies@ Warriors | 21% | 79% | 29% | 71% | −8 |
| Clippers@ Lakers | 28% | 72% | 27% | 73% | +1 |
| Trail Blazers@ Kings | 63% | 37% | – | – | – |
| Sat, Oct 24 | |||||
| Heat@ Hornets | 27% | 73% | 43% | 57% | −16 |
| Nets@ Cavaliers | 9% | 91% | 22% | 78% | −13 |
| Bucks@ 76ers | 17% | 83% | 25% | 75% | −8 |
| Pelicans@ Nuggets | 16% | 84% | – | – | – |
| Wizards@ Bulls | 23% | 77% | – | – | – |
| Spurs@ Mavericks | 84% | 16% | 75% | 25% | +9 |
| Rockets@ Hawks | 44% | 56% | – | – | – |
| Warriors@ Suns | 27% | 73% | – | – | – |
| Sun, Oct 25 | |||||
| Lakers@ Jazz | 77% | 23% | – | – | – |
| Pacers@ Nets | 44% | 56% | – | – | – |
| Clippers@ Thunder | 14% | 86% | – | – | – |
| Raptors@ Timberwolves | 32% | 68% | – | – | – |
| Magic@ Knicks | 15% | 85% | – | – | – |
| Pistons@ 76ers | 50% | 50% | – | – | – |
| Grizzlies@ Kings | 29% | 71% | – | – | – |
Across the 27 games with a usable price, the mean absolute gap is 13.0 points and the median is 11, with 15 games more than 10 apart. Two patterns account for most of it. First, the model is much more confident: its favourites average 72% against the market's 64%, because last season's ratings run from the Knicks at 1874 to the Wizards at 1125, and the market thinks a lot of that gap has closed. Second, the model leans harder on home court: its home teams average 65% against the market's 58%, and the market is higher on the away team in 20 of 27 games. The two disagree on the favourite in 6: Celtics @ Pistons, Bucks @ Wizards, Hornets @ Nets, Pacers @ Pelicans, Timberwolves @ Magic and Knicks @ Celtics. The closest agreement is Cavaliers @ 76ers, where the two are level.
The ten biggest gaps
Pacers @ Pelicans Wed, Oct 21 · 8:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pacers | 28% | 60% | −32 |
| Pelicans | 72% | 40% | +32 |
Indiana went 19–63 last season, the second-worst record in the league, and opens 26th on the ratings (1270, 26th). New Orleans went 26–56 (1378, 21st). On results alone the Pelicans are clear home favourites. The market makes Indiana the favourite, and the reason is obvious: Tyrese Haliburton missed all of last season after tearing his Achilles in Game 7 of the 2025 Finals, and he is back. Ivica Zubac, added at last season's trade deadline, played only five games for Indiana. This is the purest test of the week: a rating that has only seen the Pacers without their best player.
Timberwolves @ Magic Fri, Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Timberwolves | 40% | 72% | −32 |
| Magic | 60% | 28% | +32 |
Minnesota went 49–33 last season (1611, 10th) and Orlando 45–37 (1585, 12th). The ratings are only 26 points apart, so home court makes the Magic favourites on the model. The market has gone the other way by a long way and makes Minnesota big road favourites. Franz Wagner left Orlando's preseason finale with a right shoulder injury, and the Magic have not said how serious it is, but we could not find anything that explains a gap this wide. With volume on both sides, this is a price worth watching between now and Friday.
Hornets @ Nets Wed, Oct 21 · 7:30 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hornets | 79% | 48% | +31 |
| Nets | 21% | 52% | −31 |
Charlotte was the story of the second half of last season: 15–26 at the halfway mark, 44–38 by the end, and a rating that went from 29th of 30 at the start of last season to 7th now (1641, 7th). Brooklyn went 20–62 (1200, 29th). The model makes the Hornets big road favourites; the market has it close to even. Charlotte is short-handed for the opener: Kon Knueppel and Coby White have no return date, Grant Williams missed all of preseason with a hamstring injury, and Grayson Allen is questionable with a sore knee.
76ers @ Knicks Tue, Oct 20 · 7:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76ers | 14% | 38% | −24 |
| Knicks | 86% | 62% | +24 |
The champions open at home. New York went 53–29, then 16–3 through the playoffs, beating San Antonio 4–1 in the Finals, and starts the season as the top-rated team (1874, 1st). Philadelphia went 45–37 (1568, 13th). The ratings gap plus home court makes the Knicks 86% favourites on the model, the most lopsided game of opening night. The market has the 76ers far closer, and one reason is new: Philadelphia traded for Jaylen Brown in July.
Bucks @ Wizards Wed, Oct 21 · 7:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bucks | 57% | 37% | +20 |
| Wizards | 43% | 63% | −20 |
The model makes Milwaukee road favourites; the market makes Washington the favourite. On results the model has a point: the Wizards went 17–65 and open as the lowest-rated team in the league (1125, 30th), against the Bucks' 32–50 (1315, 22nd). But both rosters have changed completely. Milwaukee traded Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis to Miami in July for Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis and picks. Washington has the No. 1 pick, AJ Dybantsa, plus Trae Young and Anthony Davis, who arrived in trades last season and played five games and no games for the Wizards respectively. The same split shows up on Friday, when the model makes Toronto 78% favourites in Washington and the market has the Raptors at 67%.
Kings @ Clippers Wed, Oct 21 · 10:30 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kings | 19% | 39% | −20 |
| Clippers | 81% | 61% | +20 |
Sacramento went 22–60 (1293, 24th). The Clippers went 42–40 (1523, 17th) but have been rebuilt since: James Harden and Ivica Zubac were traded in February, and Kawhi Leonard left in the summer. The model makes the Clippers strong home favourites. The market agrees on the favourite but is far less sure.
Celtics @ Pistons Tue, Oct 20 · 3:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celtics | 36% | 52% | −16 |
| Pistons | 64% | 48% | +16 |
The first game of the season is a meeting of last season's top two in the East. Detroit had the best record in the East at 60–22 (1687, 4th) and won the season series 3–1. Boston went 56–26 (1672, 5th). The model makes the Pistons home favourites; the market has it close to even, with Boston slightly ahead. Boston looks different: Jaylen Brown went to Philadelphia in July, Paul George arrives, and Jayson Tatum, who tore his Achilles in May 2025, averaged 21 points in a 4–0 preseason.
Warriors @ Lakers Wed, Oct 21 · 10:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 19% | 35% | −16 |
| Lakers | 81% | 65% | +16 |
Golden State went 37–45 last season and lost more rating points than all but four teams, from 1619 at the start of the season to 1357 at the end (now 1393, 20th). The Lakers went 53–29 (1623, 8th). The model makes the Lakers big home favourites; the market has the Warriors far closer.
Heat @ Hornets Sat, Oct 24 · 6:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heat | 27% | 43% | −16 |
| Hornets | 73% | 57% | +16 |
Miami went 43–39 (1520, 18th), a rating that includes none of Giannis Antetokounmpo, who arrived from Milwaukee in July. Charlotte (1641, 7th) is at home, and the model makes the Hornets clear favourites; the market makes it much closer. Charlotte's guard injuries (Knueppel and White, above) matter here too.
Knicks @ Celtics Fri, Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks | 58% | 45% | +13 |
| Celtics | 42% | 55% | −13 |
Like Charlotte and Milwaukee above, a road team the model rates higher than the market does. The Knicks (1874, 1st) are rated 202 points above Boston (1672, 5th), more than enough to beat home court, so the model makes New York the favourite in Boston. The market makes the Celtics favourites. Boston's changes since last season (Brown out, George in) are the same ones as on Tuesday in Detroit.