This is the ninth entry in a season-long watching brief comparing SharpModels' own ratings against the market, game by game. Week 8 was close to level: the market picked 10 winners to the model's 9 (the model had Vikings at Lions at 50–50), and on average accuracy the two were almost identical, with the market fractionally closer. The last entry's four widest gaps split two each. The market was right that Washington would beat the Eagles and that Detroit would beat Minnesota; the model was right that Denver would beat Kansas City and that Buffalo would handle Baltimore, 36–10. The model was also right to be firmer on Green Bay and Pittsburgh at home, while the market was closer on Chicago's 34–17 win in Seattle. Pittsburgh and Tennessee have the week off, and Bengals against Falcons is in Madrid. Market prices were taken on the afternoon of Tuesday, November 3, before the Thursday night game.
A gap between model and market is worth chasing, not noise to shrug off. SharpModels' ratings are built purely from what happens on the field, so unlike the market they carry no offseason or injury news, only real results. Model probabilities are taken from the SharpModels matchups page; market probabilities are two-sided prices normalised to sum to 100. Away team is shown first ("vs" marks the neutral-site game, with Cincinnati listed first), and diff is model minus market on the away side, so a negative number means the market is higher on the away team than the model is.
Week 9 Slate
| Game | Model away | Model home | Market away | Market home | Diff (away) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars@ Ravens | 54% | 46% | 80% | 20% | −26 |
| Bengalsvs Falcons | 65% | 35% | 60% | 40% | +5 |
| Broncos@ Panthers | 72% | 28% | 59% | 41% | +13 |
| Browns@ Saints | 47% | 53% | 44% | 56% | +3 |
| Cowboys@ Colts | 49% | 51% | 70% | 30% | −21 |
| Lions@ Dolphins | 71% | 29% | 75% | 25% | −4 |
| Jets@ Chiefs | 16% | 84% | 20% | 80% | −4 |
| Rams@ Commanders | 65% | 35% | 70% | 30% | −5 |
| Giants@ Eagles | 39% | 61% | 63% | 37% | −24 |
| Texans@ Chargers | 59% | 41% | 66% | 34% | −7 |
| Cardinals@ Seahawks | 14% | 86% | 16% | 84% | −2 |
| Packers@ Patriots | 36% | 64% | 42% | 58% | −6 |
| Raiders@ 49ers | 17% | 83% | 20% | 80% | −3 |
| Buccaneers@ Bears | 29% | 71% | 28% | 72% | +1 |
| Bills@ Vikings | 52% | 48% | 63% | 37% | −11 |
Mean absolute deviation is 9.0 points and the median is 5, with 7 of 15 games disagreeing by more than 5. The signed mean is −6.1, and the market is higher on the away team than the model in 11 of 15 games, level with Week 3 for the most this season. The three widest gaps all go that way, and two of them are quarterback stories: Jaguars at Ravens, with Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley both injured, is the widest at 26 points, and Giants at Eagles, the Eagles' third week in a row near the top without Jalen Hurts, is next at 24. Cowboys at Colts is third at 21, and nothing in the news explains that one. Fourth is Denver at Carolina, the widest gap the other way, with the model 13 points higher on the Broncos. Bills at Vikings, with Kyler Murray's hamstring in doubt, is next at 11. The two favourite flips are the Giants and Cowboys games. Buccaneers at Bears is the closest game, one point apart.
Match by match
Jaguars @ Ravens Thu, Nov 5, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 54% | 80% | −26 |
| Ravens | 46% | 20% | +26 |
Thursday night, and the widest gap of the week. Baltimore lost 10–36 in Buffalo, where the model's 74% on the Bills beat the market's 62%, and Lamar Jackson left the game with a right thumb injury. He needs surgery and goes on injured reserve, missing at least four games. Tyler Huntley, who started the three games Jackson missed earlier, also went off with a toe injury and is not expected to play, which leaves undrafted third-stringer Joe Fagnano, himself carrying a knock, as the likely starter. The Ravens have lost three straight (down 17 to 1525, 16th) and are 4–4. Jacksonville beat Indianapolis 42–7 (up 16 to 1622, 6th) and is 5–2. On results alone the Jaguars are 97 points better, which after home field is only a 54% edge on the model. The market, pricing in Baltimore's quarterback room, makes them 80% favourites.
Bengals vs Falcons Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 9:30 AM ET · Madrid
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | 65% | 60% | +5 |
| Falcons | 35% | 40% | −5 |
In Madrid, so no home field. Cincinnati has won three straight, the latest 43–36 over Tennessee (up 6 to 1567, 13th), and is 5–2; its 89-point gain since the preseason is second only to Chicago's. Atlanta lost 0–16 at Tampa Bay (down 24 to 1438, 20th) and is 3–5. A 129-point gap makes the Bengals 65% favourites on the model; the market has them at 60%.
Broncos @ Panthers Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 72% | 59% | +13 |
| Panthers | 28% | 41% | −13 |
One of only four games where the model is higher on the away team than the market, and the widest of them. Denver beat Kansas City 28–24, last week's second-widest gap and a call the model got right (64% on the Broncos to the market's 47%). It is four straight wins for the Broncos (up 11 to 1663, 3rd), who are 6–2. Carolina has lost two straight, the latest 19–27 at Green Bay (down 12 to 1401, 24th), and is 3–4. The model makes Denver 72% road favourites; the market has them at 59%.
Browns @ Saints Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 47% | 44% | +3 |
| Saints | 53% | 56% | −3 |
Cleveland is 5–3 but lost 6–27 at Pittsburgh (down 17 to 1411, 23rd). New Orleans comes off its bye at 2–5 after losing 10–16 to Pittsburgh in Paris (1374, 27th). The two are 37 points apart, so home field makes the Saints slight favourites: 53% on the model and 56% on the market.
Cowboys @ Colts Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 49% | 70% | −21 |
| Colts | 51% | 30% | +21 |
A favourite flip, and the third-widest gap. Dallas lost 30–33 at home to Arizona as a 71% favourite (down 20 to 1441, 19th) and is 3–5. Indianapolis has lost four straight, the latest 7–42 at Jacksonville (down 16 to 1388, 26th), and is 2–6, 64 points down on the preseason. The Cowboys' 53-point ratings edge is less than home field, so the model has the Colts at 51%. The market makes Dallas 70% favourites. The quarterback news doesn't explain it: Daniel Jones threw two interceptions in Jacksonville and was pulled late for Anthony Richardson, but coach Shane Steichen said on Monday that Jones keeps the job.
Lions @ Dolphins Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 71% | 75% | −4 |
| Dolphins | 29% | 25% | +4 |
Detroit beat Minnesota 19–15, ending the Vikings' unbeaten start; the model had a coin flip and the market's 62% on the Lions was right (up 16 to 1608, 10th). The Lions have won three straight and are 5–2. Miami lost 19–24 at home to New England (down 11 to 1359, 29th) and is 1–6. Close agreement: Lions 71% on the model and 75% on the market.
Jets @ Chiefs Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | 16% | 20% | −4 |
| Chiefs | 84% | 80% | +4 |
Kansas City has lost two straight, the latest 24–28 at Denver (down 11 to 1580, 11th), and is 5–2. The Jets lost 33–38 at home to Las Vegas (down 19 to 1294, 31st) and are 2–6. Close agreement: Chiefs 84% on the model and 80% on the market.
Rams @ Commanders Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | 65% | 70% | −5 |
| Commanders | 35% | 30% | +5 |
Washington beat Philadelphia 27–10, last week's widest gap and the market's call (up 31 to 1427, 21st), and is 2–4–1. The Rams have won two straight, the latest 24–9 over the Chargers (up 12 to 1618, 8th), and are 4–4. The model makes the Rams 65% road favourites; the market has them at 70%.
Giants @ Eagles Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 39% | 63% | −24 |
| Eagles | 61% | 37% | +24 |
A favourite flip, and the second-widest gap. For the third week running the Eagles are at the top of the list, and the market was right the last two times: Dallas won in Philadelphia and Washington won at home. The Eagles have lost six straight, the latest 10–27 at Washington (down 31 to 1453, 18th), are 2–6 and have lost 155 points since the preseason, more than any other team. Jalen Hurts is on injured reserve, so Tanner McKee is expected to start again. The Giants come off their bye at 4–2–1, top of the NFC East, after winning 27–21 at Houston as a 25% underdog (up 29 to 1423, 22nd), and have managed that without Jaxson Dart, out since a Week 2 knee injury. The rating still has Philadelphia 30 points ahead and at home, so the model makes the Eagles 61% favourites. The market has the Giants at 63%.
Texans @ Chargers Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 4:05 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 59% | 66% | −7 |
| Chargers | 41% | 34% | +7 |
Houston comes off its bye at 2–5 after losing 21–27 at home to the Giants as a 75% favourite (down 29 to 1534, 15th), and has lost 90 points since the preseason, the third-biggest fall after Philadelphia's and the Chargers'. The Chargers are still the league's only winless team at 0–7, after losing 9–24 to the Rams (down 12 to 1399, 25th). The model makes Houston 59% road favourites; the market has them at 66%.
Cardinals @ Seahawks Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 14% | 16% | −2 |
| Seahawks | 86% | 84% | +2 |
The biggest swing of Week 8 was in Seattle: Chicago won 34–17, and the Seahawks dropped 41 points to 1666 while the Bears gained 41. Seattle is 4–4 but still second in the ratings. Arizona won 33–30 at Dallas as a 29% underdog (up 20 to 1357, 30th) and is 3–5. Seattle won the first meeting 31–7 in Arizona in Week 2. Close agreement: Seahawks 86% on the model and 84% on the market.
Packers @ Patriots Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | 36% | 42% | −6 |
| Patriots | 64% | 58% | +6 |
Both teams won in Week 8 and both are 5–3. Green Bay beat Carolina 27–19 (up 12 to 1554, 14th), and New England won 24–19 in Miami (up 11 to 1610, 9th). A 56-point gap plus home field makes the Patriots 64% favourites on the model; the market has them at 58%.
Raiders @ 49ers Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 17% | 20% | −3 |
| 49ers | 83% | 80% | +3 |
San Francisco comes off its bye at 6–1 after losing 20–29 at Atlanta (1639, 4th). Las Vegas ended a four-game losing run with a 38–33 win at the Jets (up 19 to 1371, 28th) and is 4–4. Close agreement: 49ers 83% on the model and 80% on the market.
Buccaneers @ Bears Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 8:20 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | 29% | 28% | +1 |
| Bears | 71% | 72% | −1 |
The closest game of the week. Chicago won 34–17 in Seattle as a 28% underdog on the model (the market's 38% was closer), the biggest gain of the week (up 41 to 1618, 7th). The Bears have won three straight, are 6–2 and have gained 97 points since the preseason, the most of any team. Tampa Bay has won two straight, the latest 16–0 over Atlanta (up 24 to 1491, 17th), and is 3–5. Bears 71% on the model and 72% on the market.
Bills @ Vikings Mon, Nov 9, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET
| Team | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 52% | 63% | −11 |
| Vikings | 48% | 37% | +11 |
Monday night, between two 6–1 teams. Buffalo beat Baltimore 36–10 (up 17 to 1714) and is the top-rated team in football. Minnesota lost its unbeaten record 15–19 at Detroit (down 16 to 1637, 5th). The Bills' 77-point edge cancels home field almost exactly, so the model has them at 52%; the market makes them 63% favourites. The Vikings' quarterback is the question: Kyler Murray has a sore hamstring and coach Kevin O'Connell said on Monday it was uncertain whether he would be available, with Carson Wentz in line to make his second start of the season if not. Murray, signed as a free agent in the spring, was 26th of 30 qualified quarterbacks by QBR through his six starts.