Premier League Round 9. Round 8 was split. The market's favourite won four times to SharpModels' two, and none of the round's four favourite flips went SharpModels' way: Fulham won at Coventry, Newcastle won at Crystal Palace, and Ipswich v Nottingham and Sunderland v Leeds were both draws. But SharpModels was slightly closer on average accuracy, thanks largely to the widest gap. The market had Manchester City at 59% at Aston Villa; SharpModels had them at 42% and gave Villa a far better chance, and Villa won 2–1. That follows a Round 7 that went to the market.
Model probabilities are SharpModels' own current win, draw and loss figures for each match, and its ratings include this week's EFL Cup ties. Market probabilities are prediction-market prices (Kalshi mid-prices, taken on the morning of October 29) with the overround removed, since the raw prices add up to between 98.5 and 101.5 across the three outcomes. Diff is quoted as SharpModels minus the no-vig market, so a positive number means SharpModels rates that outcome higher than the market does.
Round 9 Slate
| Match | Model H | Model D | Model A | Market H | Market D | Market A | Diff H | Diff A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chelseav Manchester Utd | 47% | 27% | 26% | 52.2% | 24.4% | 23.4% | −5.2 | +2.6 |
 Bournemouthv Leeds | 49% | 26% | 25% | 46.2% | 27.9% | 25.9% | +2.8 | −0.9 |
 Brentfordv Nottingham | 50% | 26% | 24% | 47.7% | 25.6% | 26.6% | +2.3 | −2.6 |
 Coventryv Sunderland | 40% | 28% | 32% | 30.7% | 28.6% | 40.7% | +9.3 | −8.7 |
 Hullv Ipswich | 31% | 28% | 41% | 36.3% | 28.4% | 35.3% | −5.3 | +5.7 |
 Manchester Cityv Brighton | 57% | 24% | 19% | 58.4% | 20.8% | 20.8% | −1.4 | −1.8 |
 Tottenhamv Crystal Palace | 49% | 26% | 25% | 62.6% | 21.2% | 16.3% | −13.6 | +8.7 |
 Aston Villav Fulham | 57% | 24% | 19% | 49.7% | 25.6% | 24.6% | +7.3 | −5.6 |
 Liverpoolv Arsenal | 30% | 28% | 43% | 31.7% | 27.6% | 40.7% | −1.7 | +2.3 |
 Newcastlev Everton | 48% | 26% | 25% | 41.4% | 26.8% | 31.8% | +6.6 | −6.8 |
Market columns above are already vig-free. The widest gap is Tottenham v Crystal Palace, where the market is 14 points more confident in Spurs after their two straight wins, while SharpModels sees two closely rated sides. There are two favourite flips, one each way. At Coventry v Sunderland, SharpModels lets home advantage tip it to Coventry and the market backs Sunderland; at Hull v Ipswich, SharpModels backs the better-rated away side and the market backs Hull. SharpModels is also more confident than the market in four home favourites: Aston Villa and Newcastle by about seven points, Bournemouth and Brentford by two or three. The two biggest games, Manchester City v Brighton and Liverpool v Arsenal, are among the closest, with model and market within 3.5 points on every outcome.
Match by match
Chelsea vs Manchester Utd Sat, Oct 31, 2026 · 12:30 PM GMT
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea |
47% | 52.2% | −5.2 |
| Draw | 27% | 24.4% | +2.6 |
| Manchester Utd |
26% | 23.4% | +2.6 |
Chelsea are fifth on 13 points but lost 2–0 at home to Tottenham last round, then drew 1–1 at Liverpool in the EFL Cup on Wednesday. Manchester Utd are 16th with one league win from eight, and lost 3–0 at home to Bournemouth last time out. Their rating has fallen 66 points this season, more than any other Premier League side, to 1894. Chelsea are rated only 18 points higher (1912), so home advantage does most of the work in SharpModels' 47% on Chelsea. The market is five points firmer, at 52%. United lead the all-time record 11 wins to 9 with 13 draws from 33 meetings, and won the most recent, 1–0 at Chelsea in April.
Bournemouth vs Leeds Sat, Oct 31, 2026 · 3:00 PM GMT
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth |
49% | 46.2% | +2.8 |
| Draw | 26% | 27.9% | −1.9 |
| Leeds |
25% | 25.9% | −0.9 |
Bournemouth are 13th but in form: back-to-back league wins, 2–0 over Sunderland and 3–0 at Manchester Utd, then a 3–0 win over Aston Villa in the EFL Cup on Wednesday. They have gained 37 points this season and are rated sixth (1927). Leeds are seventh and have lost only once, with five draws, the joint-most in the league with Brentford; they drew 0–0 at Sunderland last round. Close agreement, with SharpModels three points higher on Bournemouth. Leeds lead the all-time record 4 wins to 2 with two draws from eight meetings; the most recent finished 2–2 at Bournemouth in April.
Brentford vs Nottingham Sat, Oct 31, 2026 · 3:00 PM GMT
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford |
50% | 47.7% | +2.3 |
| Draw | 26% | 25.6% | +0.4 |
| Nottingham |
24% | 26.6% | −2.6 |
Brentford are sixth, beaten only once in the league, but drew 1–1 at Hull last round and lost 3–2 at Sunderland in the EFL Cup on Wednesday. Nottingham are 18th with one win from eight and have scored six goals, joint-fewest in the league with Coventry and Sunderland; they drew 1–1 at Ipswich last time out. A 40-point ratings gap (1900 to 1860) plus home advantage makes Brentford 50% favourites on SharpModels and 48% on the market. Brentford lead the all-time record 11 wins to 7 from 22 meetings, but Nottingham have won three of the last five, most recently 2–0 at Brentford in January.
Coventry vs Sunderland Sat, Oct 31, 2026 · 3:00 PM GMT
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry |
40% | 30.7% | +9.3 |
| Draw | 28% | 28.6% | −0.6 |
| Sunderland |
32% | 40.7% | −8.7 |
One of two favourite flips. Coventry are 19th and have lost their last two league games, 3–1 at Tottenham and 1–0 at home to Fulham. Sunderland are bottom with five points and one league win, but beat Brentford 3–2 in the EFL Cup on Wednesday. Sunderland are rated 32 points higher (1850 to 1818), which home advantage more than cancels: SharpModels makes Coventry 40% favourites. The market makes Sunderland 41% favourites, nine points apart on both teams' chances. Coventry lead the all-time record 6 wins to 1 with five draws from 12 meetings, and won the most recent, 1–0 at Sunderland in May 2025.
Hull vs Ipswich Sat, Oct 31, 2026 · 3:00 PM GMT
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull |
31% | 36.3% | −5.3 |
| Draw | 28% | 28.4% | −0.4 |
| Ipswich |
41% | 35.3% | +5.7 |
The other favourite flip, the opposite way round. Hull are tenth on ten points and have lost only twice, but their 1737 rating is still the lowest in the league. They drew 1–1 with Brentford last round. Ipswich are 12th, also on ten points, and drew 1–1 with Nottingham last time out. Ipswich are rated 98 points higher (1834), enough to outweigh home advantage: SharpModels makes Ipswich 41% favourites. The market makes Hull 36% favourites. Hull lead the all-time record 10 wins to 4 with four draws from 18 meetings, but Ipswich have won four of the last five, most recently 1–0 at home in March.
Manchester City vs Brighton Sat, Oct 31, 2026 · 3:00 PM GMT
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City |
57% | 58.4% | −1.4 |
| Draw | 24% | 20.8% | +3.2 |
| Brighton |
19% | 20.8% | −1.8 |
City are top on goal difference from Arsenal, both on 21 points, despite losing for the first time last round, 2–1 at Aston Villa. These two then met in the EFL Cup on Wednesday, a 2–2 draw. Brighton are third, with the best goal difference in the league (+16) and the most goals (23), but lost 2–0 at Liverpool last round. City are rated 90 points higher (2051 to 1961). Close agreement, within 3.5 points on every outcome. City lead the all-time record 12 wins to 3 with three draws from 18 meetings; the last league meeting finished 1–1 in January.
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace Sat, Oct 31, 2026 · 5:30 PM GMT
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham |
49% | 62.6% | −13.6 |
| Draw | 26% | 21.2% | +4.8 |
| Crystal Palace |
25% | 16.3% | +8.7 |
The widest gap of the round. Tottenham are 14th but have won two straight, 3–1 over Coventry and 2–0 at Chelsea. Crystal Palace are 17th, lost their last two league games 5–0 at Brighton and 2–0 at home to Newcastle, and have conceded 19 goals, the most in the league. They did win 1–0 at Fulham in the EFL Cup on Wednesday. The ratings are close, Tottenham 1864 to Palace 1833, so SharpModels has Spurs at 49%. The market makes them 63% favourites, 14 points higher, and has Palace at only 16%. Tottenham lead the all-time record 18 wins to 5 with three draws from 26 meetings, but Palace have won three of the last five, most recently 3–1 at Tottenham in March.
Aston Villa vs Fulham Sat, Oct 31, 2026 · 8:00 PM GMT
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa |
57% | 49.7% | +7.3 |
| Draw | 24% | 25.6% | −1.6 |
| Fulham |
19% | 24.6% | −5.6 |
Villa are ninth after beating Manchester City 2–1 last round, the result that backed SharpModels in the widest gap of Round 8, though they then lost 3–0 at Bournemouth in the EFL Cup on Wednesday. They are rated fifth (1955). Fulham are 15th and have won their last two league games, both 1–0, before losing 1–0 at home to Crystal Palace in the cup. An 89-point ratings gap (to 1866) plus home advantage makes Villa 57% favourites on SharpModels; the market has them at 50%. Villa lead the all-time record 12 wins to 8 with four draws from 24 meetings and have won four of the last five, though Fulham won the most recent, 1–0 at home in April.
Liverpool vs Arsenal Sun, Nov 1, 2026 · 4:30 PM GMT
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool |
30% | 31.7% | −1.7 |
| Draw | 28% | 27.6% | +0.4 |
| Arsenal |
43% | 40.7% | +2.3 |
Sunday's big one, and close agreement. Arsenal are second on goal difference, with the best rating in the league (2082), seven wins from eight and only five goals conceded, the fewest. They have won three straight league games, the latest 2–0 over Everton, and drew 1–1 at Fleetwood in the EFL Cup on Wednesday. Liverpool are fourth after two straight league wins, 2–1 at Brentford and 2–0 over Brighton, and drew 1–1 with Chelsea in the cup. Arsenal are rated 108 points higher (to 1974), enough to make them favourites away from home: 43% on SharpModels and 41% on the market. Liverpool lead the all-time record 12 wins to 8 with 13 draws from 33 meetings; three of the last five were draws, the most recent 0–0 at Arsenal in January.
Newcastle vs Everton Mon, Nov 2, 2026 · 8:00 PM GMT
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle |
48% | 41.4% | +6.6 |
| Draw | 26% | 26.8% | −0.8 |
| Everton |
25% | 31.8% | −6.8 |
Monday night. Newcastle are eighth and won 2–0 at Crystal Palace last round, but that followed three defeats in four. Everton are 11th and have lost their last two, both 2–0, to Chelsea and at Arsenal. The ratings are close (1905 to 1878), so home advantage makes Newcastle 48% favourites on SharpModels. The market agrees on the favourite but is seven points lower, at 41%, with Everton at 32%. Everton lead the all-time record 15 wins to 10 with five draws from 30 meetings, and won the most recent, 3–2 at Newcastle in February.