Premier League Round 7. Round 6 finished close: the model's favourite won six times to the market's four, but on average accuracy the two were level. Of the three games where they backed different favourites, SharpModels was right on two, Ipswich beating Fulham and Crystal Palace beating Nottingham 3–1, while Aston Villa and Brentford drew 2–2. The market was right to be far more confident in Chelsea, who beat Bournemouth 5–1.
Model probabilities are SharpModels' own current win, draw and loss figures for each match. Market probabilities are prediction-market prices with the overround removed, since the raw prices add up to 101 or 102 across the three outcomes. Diff is quoted as SharpModels minus the no-vig market, so a positive number means SharpModels rates that outcome higher than the market does.
Round 7 Slate
| Match | Model H | Model D | Model A | Market H | Market D | Market A | Diff H | Diff A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Evertonv Chelsea | 42% | 28% | 31% | 32.4% | 26.5% | 41.2% | +9.6 | −10.2 |
 Manchester Cityv Ipswich | 76% | 15% | 9% | 79.2% | 12.9% | 7.9% | −3.2 | +1.1 |
 Brentfordv Liverpool | 39% | 28% | 33% | 39.6% | 26.7% | 33.7% | −0.6 | −0.7 |
 Fulhamv Hull | 62% | 22% | 16% | 58.4% | 23.8% | 17.8% | +3.6 | −1.8 |
 Newcastlev Aston Villa | 39% | 28% | 33% | 42.2% | 25.5% | 32.4% | −3.2 | +0.6 |
 Leedsv Manchester Utd | 40% | 28% | 32% | 41.2% | 26.5% | 32.4% | −1.2 | −0.4 |
 Brightonv Crystal Palace | 60% | 23% | 18% | 63.7% | 20.6% | 15.7% | −3.7 | +2.3 |
 Bournemouthv Sunderland | 47% | 27% | 26% | 45.1% | 27.5% | 27.5% | +1.9 | −1.5 |
 Nottinghamv Arsenal | 18% | 23% | 58% | 16.7% | 24.5% | 58.8% | +1.3 | −0.8 |
 Tottenhamv Coventry | 45% | 27% | 28% | 64.7% | 20.6% | 14.7% | −19.7 | +13.3 |
Market columns above are already vig-free. This is the quietest round of the season so far: eight of the ten games agree to within four points on every outcome. The two exceptions are both about how far to trust a big club's results. Tottenham versus Coventry is the widest gap, with the market 20 points more confident in a winless Spurs side than SharpModels is. Everton versus Chelsea is the only game where the two back different favourites, SharpModels taking Everton at home and the market taking Chelsea.
Match by match
Everton vs Chelsea Sat, Oct 17, 2026 · 12:30 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton |
42% | 32.4% | +9.6 |
| Draw | 28% | 26.5% | +1.5 |
| Chelsea |
31% | 41.2% | −10.2 |
One of the two real disagreements of the round, and the only game where model and market back different favourites. Everton are fifth and unbeaten after six games (two wins, four draws), most recently 2–2 at Hull, and have conceded only five goals. Chelsea are sixth and come off a 5–1 win over Bournemouth, a game in which the market's extra confidence in them was fully justified. The ratings are close, Chelsea 1912 to Everton 1895, so SharpModels' lean to Everton at 42% is home advantage. The market makes Chelsea 41% favourites. Chelsea lead the all-time record 15 wins to 11 from 33 meetings and have won three of the last five, but Everton won the most recent 3–0 at home in March.
Manchester City vs Ipswich Sat, Oct 17, 2026 · 3:00 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City |
76% | 79.2% | −3.2 |
| Draw | 15% | 12.9% | +2.1 |
| Ipswich |
9% | 7.9% | +1.1 |
City are the only side with six wins from six, scoring 16 goals and winning 3–0 at Liverpool last time out, and are rated 2075, just behind Arsenal. Ipswich are tenth with three wins and three defeats, the latest a 2–1 home win over Fulham. Model and market agree this is the most one-sided game of the round, the market three points firmer on City. City won both previous meetings, most recently 6–0 at Ipswich in January 2025.
Brentford vs Liverpool Sat, Oct 17, 2026 · 3:00 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford |
39% | 39.6% | −0.6 |
| Draw | 28% | 26.7% | +1.3 |
| Liverpool |
33% | 33.7% | −0.7 |
Model and market are almost identical here. Brentford are fourth and still unbeaten (two wins, four draws) after a 2–2 at Aston Villa. Liverpool lost for the first time last round, 3–0 at home to Manchester City, and sit ninth. Liverpool are rated 35 points higher (1951 to 1916), which home advantage turns into a slight Brentford lean on both sides. Liverpool lead the all-time record 6 wins to 2 from ten meetings; the last ended 1–1 at Liverpool in May.
Fulham vs Hull Sat, Oct 17, 2026 · 3:00 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham |
62% | 58.4% | +3.6 |
| Draw | 22% | 23.8% | −1.8 |
| Hull |
16% | 17.8% | −1.8 |
Fulham are bottom and still winless after a 2–1 defeat at Ipswich. Hull are eighth after a 2–2 with Everton, but their 1737 rating is the lowest in the league, 125 points below Fulham's. Both sides make Fulham clear home favourites, SharpModels a few points more firmly. Hull lead the all-time record 5 wins to 4 from 11 meetings, but Fulham won the most recent, 1–0 at Hull in 2022.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa Sat, Oct 17, 2026 · 5:30 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle |
39% | 42.2% | −3.2 |
| Draw | 28% | 25.5% | +2.5 |
| Aston Villa |
33% | 32.4% | +0.6 |
Newcastle are 11th after a 4–1 defeat at Coventry, their second 4–1 away defeat of the season after the one at Leeds. Aston Villa are 16th but rated higher, 1941 to 1901, after a 2–2 with Brentford. SharpModels has this close to even; the market leans Newcastle at home by a few more points. Newcastle lead 12 wins to 7 from 28 meetings, but Villa won the most recent 2–0 at Newcastle in January.
Leeds vs Manchester Utd Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · 2:00 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds |
40% | 41.2% | −1.2 |
| Draw | 28% | 26.5% | +1.5 |
| Manchester Utd |
32% | 32.4% | −0.4 |
Leeds lost for the first time last round, 2–1 at Arsenal, but are seventh and among the five sides to have conceded only five goals. Manchester Utd are 13th after a 1–1 with Tottenham and are rated slightly higher (1928 to 1895). Model and market agree to within two points on every outcome. United lead the all-time record 4 wins to 1 from eight meetings, but that one Leeds win was the most recent, 2–1 at United in April.
Brighton vs Crystal Palace Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · 2:00 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton |
60% | 63.7% | −3.7 |
| Draw | 23% | 20.6% | +2.4 |
| Crystal Palace |
18% | 15.7% | +2.3 |
Brighton are third after a 2–0 win at Sunderland, and their 18 goals are the most in the league. Crystal Palace are 12th after beating Nottingham 3–1. A 107-point ratings gap (1966 to 1859) makes Brighton clear favourites on both sides, with the market four points firmer. Palace have the better of this fixture, 9 wins to 5 with 10 draws from 24 meetings, three wins in the last five, and a 1–0 win at Brighton in February.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · 2:00 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth |
47% | 45.1% | +1.9 |
| Draw | 27% | 27.5% | −0.5 |
| Sunderland |
26% | 27.5% | −1.5 |
Two struggling sides: Bournemouth are 18th and winless after a 5–1 defeat at Chelsea, Sunderland 17th after three straight defeats, the latest 2–0 at home to Brighton. The ratings are close (1877 to 1856) and model and market agree to within two points on every outcome. The six previous meetings are split two wins each and two draws, the most recent 1–1 at Bournemouth in February.
Nottingham vs Arsenal Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · 4:30 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham |
18% | 16.7% | +1.3 |
| Draw | 23% | 24.5% | −1.5 |
| Arsenal |
58% | 58.8% | −0.8 |
Arsenal beat Leeds 2–1 and now carry the best rating in the league, 2081, just ahead of Manchester City. Nottingham are 15th after a 3–1 defeat at Crystal Palace. Close agreement, with Arsenal around 58–59% on both sides. Arsenal have won five of eight meetings and are unbeaten in the last five; the most recent was a 0–0 at Nottingham in January.
Tottenham vs Coventry Mon, Oct 19, 2026 · 8:00 PM BST
| Outcome | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham |
45% | 64.7% | −19.7 |
| Draw | 27% | 20.6% | +6.4 |
| Coventry |
28% | 14.7% | +13.3 |
The widest gap of the round. Tottenham are 19th and still winless after six games (three draws, three defeats), with just three goals scored, the fewest in the league; they drew 1–1 at Manchester Utd last time. Coventry have won two straight, 1–0 at Nottingham and 4–1 at home to Newcastle, and sit 14th. The ratings have the two level (1840 to 1834), so SharpModels' 45% for Tottenham is home advantage alone. The market makes Spurs 65% favourites, pricing the squad well above six games of results, the same bet it made on Chelsea last round, when it was right. There are no meetings between the two in the site's records, which start in 2010.