Final Score: Commanders 27 - Falcons 34
Sunday, September 28, 2025 at 1:00 PM ET
Commanders @ Falcons
NFL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Model Prediction Through Season
| Stat | Commanders | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| All-time wins | 17 | 10 |
| Last 5 meetings | 4 | 1 |
| Average points | 24.6 | 20.3 |
| Last meeting | 30 | 24 |
| Stat | Commanders | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Games played | 3 | 3 |
| Avg points scored | 26.7 | 14.0 |
| Avg points conceded | 19.0 | 19.7 |
| Win percentage | 67% | 33% |
| Away win % / Home win % | 0% | 0% |
Recent Results
Commanders
vs Las Vegas Raiders
Sep 21, 2025 · Margin: +17 · Total: 65
41-24
@ Green Bay Packers
Sep 11, 2025 · Margin: -9 · Total: 45
18-27
vs New York Giants
Sep 7, 2025 · Margin: +15 · Total: 27
21-6
@ Philadelphia Eagles
Jan 26, 2025 · Margin: -32 · Total: 78
23-55
@ Detroit Lions
Jan 18, 2025 · Margin: +14 · Total: 76
45-31
@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jan 12, 2025 · Margin: +3 · Total: 43
23-20
@ Dallas Cowboys
Jan 5, 2025 · Margin: +4 · Total: 42
23-19
vs Atlanta Falcons
Dec 29, 2024 · Margin: +6 · Total: 54
30-24
vs Philadelphia Eagles
Dec 22, 2024 · Margin: +3 · Total: 69
36-33
@ New Orleans Saints
Dec 15, 2024 · Margin: +1 · Total: 39
20-19
Falcons
@ Carolina Panthers
Sep 21, 2025 · Margin: -30 · Total: 30
0-30
@ Minnesota Vikings
Sep 14, 2025 · Margin: +16 · Total: 28
22-6
vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sep 7, 2025 · Margin: -3 · Total: 43
20-23
vs Carolina Panthers
Jan 5, 2025 · Margin: -6 · Total: 82
38-44
@ Washington Commanders
Dec 29, 2024 · Margin: -6 · Total: 54
24-30
vs New York Giants
Dec 22, 2024 · Margin: +27 · Total: 41
34-7
@ Las Vegas Raiders
Dec 16, 2024 · Margin: +6 · Total: 24
15-9
@ Minnesota Vikings
Dec 8, 2024 · Margin: -21 · Total: 63
21-42
vs Los Angeles Chargers
Dec 1, 2024 · Margin: -4 · Total: 30
13-17
@ Denver Broncos
Nov 17, 2024 · Margin: -32 · Total: 44
6-38