Final Score: Chiefs 28 - Jaguars 31
Monday, October 6, 2025 at 8:15 PM ET
Chiefs @ Jaguars
NFL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Model Prediction Through Season
| Stat | Chiefs | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| All-time wins | 10 | 6 |
| Last 5 meetings | 5 | 0 |
| Average points | 23.8 | 19.3 |
| Last meeting | 17 | 9 |
| Stat | Chiefs | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Games played | 4 | 4 |
| Avg points scored | 24.2 | 24.0 |
| Avg points conceded | 19.0 | 18.0 |
| Win percentage | 50% | 75% |
| Away win % / Home win % | 50% | 100% |
Recent Results
Chiefs
vs Baltimore Ravens
Sep 28, 2025 · Margin: +17 · Total: 57
37-20
@ New York Giants
Sep 21, 2025 · Margin: +13 · Total: 31
22-9
vs Philadelphia Eagles
Sep 14, 2025 · Margin: -3 · Total: 37
17-20
@ Los Angeles Chargers
Sep 5, 2025 · Margin: -6 · Total: 48
21-27
vs Philadelphia Eagles
Feb 9, 2025 · Margin: -18 · Total: 62
22-40
vs Buffalo Bills
Jan 26, 2025 · Margin: +3 · Total: 61
32-29
vs Houston Texans
Jan 18, 2025 · Margin: +9 · Total: 37
23-14
@ Denver Broncos
Jan 5, 2025 · Margin: -38 · Total: 38
0-38
@ Pittsburgh Steelers
Dec 25, 2024 · Margin: +19 · Total: 39
29-10
vs Houston Texans
Dec 21, 2024 · Margin: +8 · Total: 46
27-19
Jaguars
@ San Francisco 49ers
Sep 28, 2025 · Margin: +5 · Total: 47
26-21
vs Houston Texans
Sep 21, 2025 · Margin: +7 · Total: 27
17-10
@ Cincinnati Bengals
Sep 14, 2025 · Margin: -4 · Total: 58
27-31
vs Carolina Panthers
Sep 7, 2025 · Margin: +16 · Total: 36
26-10
@ Indianapolis Colts
Jan 5, 2025 · Margin: -3 · Total: 49
23-26
vs Tennessee Titans
Dec 29, 2024 · Margin: +7 · Total: 33
20-13
@ Las Vegas Raiders
Dec 22, 2024 · Margin: -5 · Total: 33
14-19
vs New York Jets
Dec 15, 2024 · Margin: -7 · Total: 57
25-32
@ Tennessee Titans
Dec 8, 2024 · Margin: +4 · Total: 16
10-6
vs Houston Texans
Dec 1, 2024 · Margin: -3 · Total: 43
20-23