Final Score: Lightning 5 - Capitals 3
Saturday, November 22, 2025 at 7:00 PM ET

Lightning @ Capitals

NHL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Lightning
11-9 Rating 1528
Form: LWLWW
Model Probability
48%
52%
Projected margin: Washington Capitals +0.5
Capitals
11-10 Rating 1524
Form: LLWWW

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Lightning Capitals
All-time wins 63 94
Last 5 meetings 3 2
Average goals 2.7 3.3
Last meeting 3 2

Key Season Stats

Stat Lightning Capitals
Games played 20 21
Avg goals scored 3.0 3.2
Avg goals conceded 2.9 2.7
Win percentage 55% 52%
Away win % / Home win % 56% 55%