Final Score: Lightning 1 - Canadiens 0
Friday, May 1, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET

Lightning @ Canadiens

NHL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Lightning
52-35 Rating 1550
Form: LWLWL
Model Probability
49%
51%
Projected margin: Montreal Canadiens +0.4
Canadiens
51-36 Rating 1542
Form: WLWLW

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Lightning Canadiens
All-time wins 77 64
Last 5 meetings 2 3
Average goals 2.8 2.6
Last meeting 2 3

Key Season Stats

Stat Lightning Canadiens
Games played 87 87
Avg goals scored 3.5 3.4
Avg goals conceded 2.8 3.1
Win percentage 60% 59%
Away win % / Home win % 58% 58%