Flyers @ Lightning

NHL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Final Score: Flyers 1 - Lightning 4
Monday, October 5, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Philadelphia
Flyers
0-3 Rating 1488
Form: LLLLL
1 – 4
Model Probability
40%
60%
Projected margin: Tampa Bay Lightning +0.9
Tampa Bay
Lightning
1-1 Rating 1539
Form: LWLLW

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Flyers Lightning
All-time wins 59 64
Last 5 meetings 1 4
Average goals 2.9 3.1
Last meeting 1 5

Key Season Stats

Stat Flyers Lightning
Games played 3 2
Avg goals scored 1.3 2.0
Avg goals conceded 4.3 3.0
Win percentage 0% 50%
Away win % / Home win % 0% 100%