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Watford vs Derby Prediction & Win Probability

Watford has a 40% chance to win.
Final Score: Watford 2–0 Derby
Sat, Feb 21, 2026 · 3:00 PM GMT
League One
Watford
11-12-9Rating 1589
Form: DLDLD
2 – 0
Model Probability
40%
Draw 28%
32%
League One
Derby
13-9-10Rating 1591
Form: WLWDW

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Form Coming Into This Game

WatfordStatDerby
32Games played32
1.3Avg goals scored1.5
1.2Avg goals conceded1.2
34% / 38% / 28%Win / Draw / Loss41% / 28% / 31%
50% Home win % / Away win % 53%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
WatfordStatDerby
8All-time wins (16 meetings, 1 draws)7
5Last 5 meetings (0 draws)0
1.6Average goals1.8
Last meeting (2025-11-22): Derby 2–3 Watford