League One Season Outlook
| # | Team | Win League | Automatic promotion | Promotion playoff | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Leicester |
31.1% | 49.7% | 33.5% | <1% |
| 2 |  Oxford Utd |
15.0% | 27.7% | 35.0% | 1.2% |
| 3 |  Plymouth |
10.7% | 21.8% | 34.4% | 1.5% |
| 4 |  Bradford City |
8.8% | 18.3% | 34.2% | 1.5% |
| 5 |  Huddersfield |
7.3% | 15.6% | 31.6% | 2.6% |
| 6 |  Sheffield Wed |
6.1% | 13.4% | 30.0% | 2.5% |
| 7 |  Stockport County |
5.4% | 12.2% | 29.6% | 3.5% |
| 8 |  Reading |
5.8% | 13.2% | 28.5% | 4.1% |
| 9 |  Cambridge Utd |
2.0% | 5.0% | 18.1% | 8.4% |
| 10 |  Burton |
1.5% | 3.5% | 14.7% | 12.3% |
| 11 |  Luton |
1.2% | 3.6% | 13.9% | 12.2% |
| 12 |  Stevenage |
<1% | 2.6% | 13.6% | 12.0% |
| 13 |  Wycombe |
1.0% | 2.9% | 13.9% | 13.1% |
| 14 |  Leyton Orient |
<1% | 2.4% | 11.4% | 15.1% |
| 15 |  AFC Wimbledon |
<1% | 1.8% | 10.3% | 17.6% |
| 16 |  Blackpool |
<1% | 1.1% | 8.4% | 20.3% |
| 17 |  Mansfield |
<1% | 1.4% | 8.0% | 22.0% |
| 18 |  Barnsley |
<1% | 1.0% | 6.9% | 24.3% |
| 19 |  Doncaster |
<1% | <1% | 6.4% | 25.7% |
| 20 |  Notts County |
<1% | <1% | 5.0% | 29.7% |
| 21 |  Peterborough |
<1% | <1% | 4.8% | 34.2% |
| 22 |  MK Dons |
<1% | <1% | 3.8% | 37.6% |
| 23 |  Bromley |
<1% | <1% | 2.0% | 47.3% |
| 24 |  Wigan |
<1% | <1% | 1.9% | 51.0% |
Exact Finishing Position Probability
Chance of finishing in each exact table position, 1st to 24th, from the same 10,000 simulations. Darker cells are more likely.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester |
31.1 | 18.6 | 12.3 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Oxford Utd |
15.0 | 12.8 | 11.3 | 9.3 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Plymouth |
10.7 | 11.1 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Bradford City |
8.8 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Huddersfield |
7.3 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Sheffield Wed |
6.1 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Stockport County |
5.4 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | <1 | <1 |
| Reading |
5.8 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.1 | <1 | <1 |
| Cambridge Utd |
2.0 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Burton |
1.5 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.3 |
| Luton |
1.2 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| Stevenage |
<1 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| Wycombe |
1.0 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.3 |
| Leyton Orient |
<1 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 2.3 |
| AFC Wimbledon |
<1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 3.2 |
| Blackpool |
<1 | <1 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 4.3 |
| Mansfield |
<1 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 4.8 |
| Barnsley |
<1 | <1 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 5.3 |
| Doncaster |
<1 | <1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.2 |
| Notts County |
<1 | <1 | <1 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 7.7 |
| Peterborough |
<1 | <1 | <1 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 9.6 |
| MK Dons |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 10.3 |
| Bromley |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 15.5 |
| Wigan |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 13.4 | 19.0 |