Historical record, recent meetings, scoring profile and performance vs the model's pre-match favorite.
| Date | Match | Result | Winner | Model Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-08 | 1–1 | Draw | Stoke 45% | |
| 2024-12-10 | 2–1 | Luton +1 | Luton 44% | |
| 2023-02-04 | 1–0 | Luton +1 | Luton 49% | |
| 2022-11-08 | 2–0 | Stoke +2 | Stoke 40% | |
| 2022-02-23 | 1–2 | Luton +1 | Stoke 44% | |
| 2021-11-06 | 0–1 | Stoke +1 | Luton 43% | |
| 2021-02-20 | 3–0 | Stoke +3 | Stoke 49% | |
| 2020-10-17 | 0–2 | Stoke +2 | Luton 44% | |
| 2020-02-29 | 1–1 | Draw | Stoke 36% | |
| 2019-12-10 | 3–0 | Stoke +3 | Stoke 45% |