League Two Season Outlook
| # | Team | Win League | Automatic promotion | Promotion playoff | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Walsall |
13.7% | 13.7% | 33.0% | 1.1% |
| 2 |  Grimsby |
12.8% | 12.8% | 33.4% | 1.0% |
| 3 |  Barnet |
11.0% | 11.0% | 32.7% | <1% |
| 4 |  Fleetwood |
7.5% | 7.5% | 27.1% | 1.6% |
| 5 |  Rotherham |
6.9% | 6.9% | 23.9% | 2.7% |
| 6 |  Cheltenham |
5.7% | 5.7% | 24.1% | 2.4% |
| 7 |  Chesterfield |
5.7% | 5.7% | 23.6% | 2.8% |
| 8 |  Crewe |
5.6% | 5.6% | 23.5% | 2.6% |
| 9 |  Gillingham |
4.9% | 4.9% | 22.5% | 3.1% |
| 10 |  Bristol Rovers |
5.0% | 5.0% | 21.9% | 2.9% |
| 11 |  Salford |
4.5% | 4.5% | 19.2% | 3.3% |
| 12 |  Exeter |
3.2% | 3.2% | 17.6% | 4.8% |
| 13 |  Swindon |
3.1% | 3.1% | 16.2% | 5.2% |
| 14 |  Tranmere |
2.9% | 2.9% | 15.6% | 5.2% |
| 15 |  Colchester |
1.6% | 1.6% | 11.4% | 7.5% |
| 16 |  York City |
1.4% | 1.4% | 9.8% | 8.7% |
| 17 |  Port Vale |
<1% | <1% | 8.5% | 10.4% |
| 18 |  Oldham |
1.0% | 1.0% | 8.9% | 10.6% |
| 19 |  Newport |
<1% | <1% | 6.2% | 16.1% |
| 20 |  Accrington |
<1% | <1% | 5.5% | 17.1% |
| 21 |  Shrewsbury |
<1% | <1% | 5.2% | 18.2% |
| 22 |  Northampton |
<1% | <1% | 4.6% | 18.7% |
| 23 |  Rochdale |
<1% | <1% | 3.7% | 22.2% |
| 24 |  Crawley |
<1% | <1% | 2.1% | 31.2% |
Exact Finishing Position Probability
Chance of finishing in each exact table position, 1st to 24th, from the same 10,000 simulations. Darker cells are more likely.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walsall |
13.7 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Grimsby |
12.8 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.0 | <1 | <1 |
| Barnet |
11.0 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Fleetwood |
7.5 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 | <1 |
| Rotherham |
6.9 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Cheltenham |
5.7 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | <1 |
| Chesterfield |
5.7 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Crewe |
5.6 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Gillingham |
4.9 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Bristol Rovers |
5.0 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Salford |
4.5 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Exeter |
3.2 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| Swindon |
3.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 |
| Tranmere |
2.9 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 2.2 |
| Colchester |
1.6 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 3.3 |
| York City |
1.4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 4.1 |
| Port Vale |
<1 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 4.7 |
| Oldham |
1.0 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 5.0 |
| Newport |
<1 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 7.9 |
| Accrington |
<1 | <1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 8.5 |
| Shrewsbury |
<1 | <1 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 9.7 |
| Northampton |
<1 | <1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 10.0 |
| Rochdale |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 12.4 |
| Crawley |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 12.6 | 18.6 |