Historical record, recent meetings, scoring profile and performance vs the model's pre-match favorite.
| Date | Match | Result | Winner | Model Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-04-24 | Scheduled | |||
| 2026-12-19 | Scheduled | |||
| 2026-02-21 | 2–2 | Draw | Dortmund 42% | |
| 2025-10-04 | 1–1 | Draw | Dortmund 59% | |
| 2025-03-15 | 2–0 | RB Leipzig +2 | RB Leipzig 40% | |
| 2024-11-02 | 2–1 | Dortmund +1 | Dortmund 41% | |
| 2024-04-27 | 4–1 | RB Leipzig +3 | RB Leipzig 42% | |
| 2023-12-09 | 2–3 | RB Leipzig +1 | Dortmund 45% | |
| 2023-03-03 | 2–1 | Dortmund +1 | Dortmund 43% | |
| 2022-09-10 | 3–0 | RB Leipzig +3 | RB Leipzig 38% | |
| 2022-04-02 | 1–4 | RB Leipzig +3 | Dortmund 40% | |
| 2021-11-06 | 2–1 | RB Leipzig +1 | RB Leipzig 39% | |
| 2021-05-08 | 3–2 | Dortmund +1 | Dortmund 42% | |
| 2021-01-09 | 1–3 | Dortmund +2 | RB Leipzig 51% | |
| 2020-06-20 | 0–2 | Dortmund +2 | RB Leipzig 44% | |
| 2019-12-17 | 3–3 | Draw | Dortmund 43% | |
| 2019-01-19 | 0–1 | Dortmund +1 | Dortmund 43% | |
| 2018-08-26 | 4–1 | Dortmund +3 | Dortmund 51% | |
| 2018-03-03 | 1–1 | Draw | Dortmund 38% | |
| 2017-10-14 | 2–3 | RB Leipzig +1 | Dortmund 65% | |
| 2017-02-04 | 1–0 | Dortmund +1 | Dortmund 59% | |
| 2016-09-10 | 1–0 | RB Leipzig +1 | Dortmund 57% |