Bundesliga Season Outlook
| # | Team | Win League | Champions League | Europa League | Conference League | Relegation | Relegation playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich |
78.9% | 99.6% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 2 |  Dortmund |
17.0% | 91.2% | 4.0% | 2.0% | <1% | <1% |
| 3 |  Bayer Leverkusen |
1.7% | 56.3% | 13.0% | 9.3% | <1% | <1% |
| 4 |  Freiburg |
1.6% | 48.8% | 13.5% | 10.4% | <1% | <1% |
| 5 |  RB Leipzig |
<1% | 26.1% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 1.4% | <1% |
| 6 |  Stuttgart |
<1% | 23.1% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 2.2% | <1% |
| 7 |  Mainz |
<1% | 13.7% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 3.9% | <1% |
| 8 |  Augsburg |
<1% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 1.4% |
| 9 |  Elversberg |
<1% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 1.4% |
| 10 |  Eintracht Frankfurt |
<1% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 2.0% |
| 11 |  Werder Bremen |
<1% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 9.8% | 2.6% |
| 12 |  Hoffenheim |
<1% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 10.6% | 3.2% |
| 13 |  Paderborn |
<1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 14.2% | 4.5% |
| 14 |  FC Koln |
<1% | <1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 26.3% | 13.1% |
| 15 |  Hamburger SV |
<1% | <1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 26.0% | 14.6% |
| 16 |  B. Monchengladbach |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 1.3% | 27.4% | 16.5% |
| 17 |  Union Berlin |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 1.5% | 27.3% | 18.3% |
| 18 |  Schalke |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 31.0% | 21.0% |
Exact Finishing Position Probability
Chance of finishing in each exact table position, 1st to 18th, from the same 10,000 simulations. Darker cells are more likely.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich |
78.9 | 16.8 | 3.1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Dortmund |
17.0 | 48.7 | 17.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Bayer Leverkusen |
1.7 | 12.4 | 23.8 | 18.4 | 13.0 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Freiburg |
1.6 | 10.7 | 19.6 | 16.9 | 13.5 | 10.4 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| RB Leipzig |
<1 | 3.7 | 9.6 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 11.6 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.5 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Stuttgart |
<1 | 3.0 | 8.6 | 11.2 | 12.2 | 10.6 | 10.2 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.3 | <1 | <1 |
| Mainz |
<1 | 1.4 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.5 | <1 |
| Augsburg |
<1 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Elversberg |
<1 | <1 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt |
<1 | <1 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 |
| Werder Bremen |
<1 | <1 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.6 |
| Hoffenheim |
<1 | <1 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 3.2 |
| Paderborn |
<1 | <1 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 4.5 |
| FC Koln |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 13.1 |
| Hamburger SV |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 11.0 | 12.2 | 13.8 | 14.6 |
| B. Monchengladbach |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 14.6 | 16.5 |
| Union Berlin |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 14.7 | 18.3 |
| Schalke |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 11.3 | 14.4 | 16.6 | 21.0 |