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Mainz vs Union Berlin Prediction & Win Probability

Mainz has a 58% chance to win.
Final Score: Mainz 1–3 Union Berlin
Sun, May 10, 2026 · 6:30 PM BST
Bundesliga
Mainz
9-10-13Rating 1730
Form: WLDLW
1 – 3
Model Probability
58%
Draw 24%
19%
Bundesliga
Union Berlin
8-9-15Rating 1685
Form: DLLLD

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Form Coming Into This Game

MainzStatUnion Berlin
32Games played32
1.3Avg goals scored1.2
1.6Avg goals conceded1.8
28% / 31% / 41%Win / Draw / Loss25% / 28% / 47%
25% Home win % / Away win % 25%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
MainzStatUnion Berlin
1All-time wins (13 meetings, 5 draws)7
0Last 5 meetings (3 draws)2
1.0Average goals1.9
Last meeting (2026-01-10): Union Berlin 2–2 Mainz