La Liga Season Outlook
| # | Team | Win League | Champions League | Europa League | Conference League | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona |
81.6% | 99.9% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 2 |  Real Madrid |
13.0% | 96.8% | 1.5% | <1% | <1% |
| 3 |  Atl. Madrid |
4.1% | 85.9% | 4.9% | 3.2% | <1% |
| 4 |  Betis |
1.0% | 64.1% | 10.2% | 7.0% | <1% |
| 5 |  Alaves |
<1% | 23.6% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 3.4% |
| 6 |  Villarreal |
<1% | 22.0% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 4.5% |
| 7 |  Sevilla |
<1% | 18.3% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 5.3% |
| 8 |  Real Sociedad |
<1% | 16.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.0% |
| 9 |  Rayo Vallecano |
<1% | 12.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.2% |
| 10 |  Ath Bilbao |
<1% | 11.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 9.7% |
| 11 |  Dep. A Coruna |
<1% | 10.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 10.1% |
| 12 |  Osasuna |
<1% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 16.6% |
| 13 |  Celta Vigo |
<1% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 16.6% |
| 14 |  Elche |
<1% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 17.6% |
| 15 |  Getafe |
<1% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 22.4% |
| 16 |  Racing Santander |
<1% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 22.5% |
| 17 |  Valencia |
<1% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 26.1% |
| 18 |  Espanyol |
<1% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 26.3% |
| 19 |  Levante |
<1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 27.8% |
| 20 |  Malaga |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 75.8% |
Exact Finishing Position Probability
Chance of finishing in each exact table position, 1st to 20th, from the same 10,000 simulations. Darker cells are more likely.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona |
81.6 | 14.0 | 3.4 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Real Madrid |
13.0 | 50.2 | 22.0 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 1.5 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Atl. Madrid |
4.1 | 21.3 | 33.6 | 17.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Betis |
1.0 | 8.6 | 18.3 | 22.3 | 14.0 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Alaves |
<1 | 1.2 | 4.1 | 8.3 | 9.9 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | <1 |
| Villarreal |
<1 | 1.2 | 3.6 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | <1 |
| Sevilla |
<1 | <1 | 3.0 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.7 | <1 |
| Real Sociedad |
<1 | <1 | 2.6 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 2.1 | <1 |
| Rayo Vallecano |
<1 | <1 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| Ath Bilbao |
<1 | <1 | 1.6 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.9 |
| Dep. A Coruna |
<1 | <1 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 |
| Osasuna |
<1 | <1 | <1 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 3.5 |
| Celta Vigo |
<1 | <1 | <1 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 3.4 |
| Elche |
<1 | <1 | <1 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 4.3 |
| Getafe |
<1 | <1 | <1 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 5.2 |
| Racing Santander |
<1 | <1 | <1 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 6.5 |
| Valencia |
<1 | <1 | <1 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 7.6 |
| Espanyol |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 6.7 |
| Levante |
<1 | <1 | <1 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 11.0 | 7.2 |
| Malaga |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 9.8 | 18.6 | 47.3 |