UEFA Nations League Group Outlook

Each nation's chance of finishing in every group position, from 10,000 simulations of the remaining group matches. Darker cells are more likely.

Group	Team	Quarter-finals	Relegation play-off	Relegated to League B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
1	France	87%	10%	3%	65%	22%	10%	3%
1	Belgium	53%	30%	18%	18%	34%	30%	18%
1	Italy	43%	34%	23%	13%	30%	34%	23%
1	Turkey	17%	26%	57%	4%	13%	26%	57%
2	Netherlands	87%	10%	3%	52%	35%	10%	3%
2	Germany	82%	14%	4%	41%	41%	14%	4%
2	Serbia	17%	42%	42%	4%	13%	42%	42%
2	Greece	13%	35%	52%	3%	10%	35%	52%
3	Spain	93%	6%	<1%	65%	28%	6%	<1%
3	England	80%	17%	3%	30%	50%	17%	3%
3	Croatia	24%	59%	17%	5%	19%	59%	17%
3	Czech Republic	3%	18%	80%	<1%	2%	18%	80%
4	Portugal	84%	12%	4%	58%	25%	12%	4%
4	Norway	55%	30%	15%	22%	33%	30%	15%
4	Denmark	46%	34%	20%	16%	30%	34%	20%
4	Wales	15%	24%	61%	4%	11%	24%	61%

Group	Team	Promoted to League A	Promotion play-off	Relegation play-off	Relegated to League C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
1	Switzerland	72%	20%	7%	2%	72%	20%	7%	2%
1	Scotland	17%	40%	28%	15%	17%	40%	28%	15%
1	Slovenia	9%	28%	37%	25%	9%	28%	37%	25%
1	North Macedonia	2%	12%	28%	58%	2%	12%	28%	58%
2	Ukraine	46%	30%	17%	7%	46%	30%	17%	7%
2	Hungary	34%	33%	21%	12%	34%	33%	21%	12%
2	Georgia	12%	21%	33%	34%	12%	21%	33%	34%
2	Northern Ireland	8%	16%	29%	46%	8%	16%	29%	46%
3	Austria	64%	23%	10%	4%	64%	23%	10%	4%
3	Ireland	19%	35%	27%	19%	19%	35%	27%	19%
3	Kosovo	10%	24%	32%	34%	10%	24%	32%	34%
3	Israel	7%	19%	30%	43%	7%	19%	30%	43%
4	Poland	37%	29%	22%	13%	37%	29%	22%	13%
4	Sweden	35%	30%	22%	13%	35%	30%	22%	13%
4	Romania	21%	26%	30%	23%	21%	26%	30%	23%
4	Bosnia & Herzegovina	7%	14%	27%	51%	7%	14%	27%	51%

Group	Team	Promoted to League B	Promotion play-off	Ranking of 4th-placed teams	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
1	Albania	50%	35%	<1%	50%	35%	14%	<1%
1	Finland	39%	40%	<1%	39%	40%	20%	<1%
1	Belarus	11%	24%	2%	11%	24%	63%	2%
1	San Marino	<1%	<1%	98%	<1%	<1%	2%	98%
2	Montenegro	51%	28%	7%	51%	28%	15%	7%
2	Armenia	30%	33%	14%	30%	33%	23%	14%
2	Latvia	10%	20%	38%	10%	20%	31%	38%
2	Cyprus	9%	19%	41%	9%	19%	31%	41%
3	Slovakia	89%	9%	<1%	89%	9%	1%	<1%
3	Kazakhstan	8%	50%	15%	8%	50%	27%	15%
3	Faroe Islands	2%	23%	38%	2%	23%	38%	38%
3	Moldova	1%	18%	47%	1%	18%	34%	47%
4	Iceland	54%	27%	6%	54%	27%	14%	6%
4	Bulgaria	25%	32%	16%	25%	32%	27%	16%
4	Luxembourg	16%	26%	26%	16%	26%	32%	26%
4	Estonia	6%	15%	52%	6%	15%	27%	52%

In League C, 4th place leads to a ranking of the four bottom sides, decided on goals, so there's no relegation percentage here.

Group	Team	Promoted to League C	Promotion play-off	1st	2nd	3rd
1	Malta	58%	28%	58%	28%	14%
1	Andorra	23%	37%	23%	37%	40%
1	Gibraltar	19%	35%	19%	35%	46%
2	Azerbaijan	60%	34%	60%	34%	6%
2	Lithuania	37%	52%	37%	52%	11%
2	Liechtenstein	3%	14%	3%	14%	84%

How these numbers work

Every match is priced from our international Elo ratings, with a 40-point boost for the home side.
Teams level on points are split by head-to-head points, as UEFA's rules do first. If they're still level, the simulation splits them at random, because UEFA's next tiebreakers use goals and we only predict win, draw or loss, never scorelines.