Final Score: Maple Leafs 4 - Lightning 3
Wednesday, April 9, 2025 at 7:00 PM ET

Maple Leafs @ Lightning

NHL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Maple Leafs
47-30 Rating 1558
Form: WWWWL
Model Probability
49%
51%
Projected margin: Tampa Bay Lightning +0.3
Lightning
45-32 Rating 1545
Form: WWLLW

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Maple Leafs Lightning
All-time wins 72 53
Last 5 meetings 3 2
Average goals 3.3 2.9
Last meeting 5 3

Key Season Stats

Stat Maple Leafs Lightning
Games played 77 77
Avg goals scored 3.3 3.6
Avg goals conceded 2.9 2.6
Win percentage 61% 58%
Away win % / Home win % 58% 73%