Final Score: Maple Leafs 5 - Golden Knights 6
Thursday, January 15, 2026 at 9:30 PM ET
Maple Leafs @ Golden Knights
NHL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Model Probability
50%
50%
Projected margin: Vegas Golden Knights +0.2
Model Prediction Through Season
| Stat | Maple Leafs | Golden Knights |
|---|---|---|
| All-time wins | 8 | 6 |
| Last 5 meetings | 2 | 3 |
| Average goals | 3.3 | 3.0 |
| Last meeting | 2 | 5 |
| Stat | Maple Leafs | Golden Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Games played | 46 | 45 |
| Avg goals scored | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| Avg goals conceded | 3.2 | 3.1 |
| Win percentage | 50% | 49% |
| Away win % / Home win % | 35% | 45% |
Recent Results
Maple Leafs
@ Utah Mammoth
Jan 13, 2026 · Margin: -5 · Total: 7
1-6
@ Colorado Avalanche
Jan 12, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 7
4-3
vs Vancouver Canucks
Jan 10, 2026 · Margin: +5 · Total: 5
5-0
@ Philadelphia Flyers
Jan 8, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 3
2-1
vs Florida Panthers
Jan 6, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 5
4-1
@ New York Islanders
Jan 3, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 7
3-4
vs Winnipeg Jets
Jan 1, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 11
6-5
vs New Jersey Devils
Dec 30, 2025 · Margin: +4 · Total: 4
4-0
@ Detroit Red Wings
Dec 28, 2025 · Margin: -1 · Total: 5
2-3
vs Ottawa Senators
Dec 27, 2025 · Margin: +2 · Total: 12
7-5
Golden Knights
@ Los Angeles Kings
Jan 14, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 5
3-2
@ San Jose Sharks
Jan 11, 2026 · Margin: +5 · Total: 9
7-2
vs St. Louis Blues
Jan 10, 2026 · Margin: +2 · Total: 6
4-2
vs Columbus Blue Jackets
Jan 8, 2026 · Margin: +2 · Total: 8
5-3
@ Winnipeg Jets
Jan 6, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 7
4-3
@ Chicago Blackhawks
Jan 4, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 5
2-3
@ St. Louis Blues
Jan 2, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 7
3-4
vs Nashville Predators
Dec 31, 2025 · Margin: -2 · Total: 6
2-4
vs Minnesota Wild
Dec 29, 2025 · Margin: -3 · Total: 7
2-5
vs Colorado Avalanche
Dec 27, 2025 · Margin: -1 · Total: 11
5-6