Final Score: Senators 5 - Maple Leafs 2
Saturday, February 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Senators @ Maple Leafs
NHL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Model Prediction Through Season
| Stat | Senators | Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| All-time wins | 86 | 89 |
| Last 5 meetings | 2 | 3 |
| Average goals | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Last meeting | 5 | 7 |
| Stat | Senators | Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| Games played | 58 | 59 |
| Avg goals scored | 3.3 | 3.2 |
| Avg goals conceded | 3.2 | 3.4 |
| Win percentage | 48% | 46% |
| Away win % / Home win % | 48% | 52% |
Recent Results
Senators
vs Detroit Red Wings
Feb 26, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 3
1-2
@ Philadelphia Flyers
Feb 5, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 3
2-1
@ Carolina Hurricanes
Feb 3, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 7
3-4
@ Pittsburgh Penguins
Feb 2, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 5
3-2
vs New Jersey Devils
Jan 31, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 5
4-1
vs Colorado Avalanche
Jan 28, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 7
5-2
vs Vegas Golden Knights
Jan 25, 2026 · Margin: +6 · Total: 8
7-1
vs Carolina Hurricanes
Jan 24, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 5
1-4
@ Nashville Predators
Jan 22, 2026 · Margin: -2 · Total: 8
3-5
@ Columbus Blue Jackets
Jan 20, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 5
4-1
Maple Leafs
@ Florida Panthers
Feb 26, 2026 · Margin: -4 · Total: 6
1-5
@ Tampa Bay Lightning
Feb 25, 2026 · Margin: -2 · Total: 6
2-4
@ Edmonton Oilers
Feb 3, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 7
5-2
@ Calgary Flames
Feb 2, 2026 · Margin: +2 · Total: 6
4-2
@ Vancouver Canucks
Jan 31, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 5
3-2
@ Seattle Kraken
Jan 29, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 7
2-5
vs Buffalo Sabres
Jan 27, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 11
4-7
vs Colorado Avalanche
Jan 25, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 5
1-4
vs Vegas Golden Knights
Jan 23, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 9
3-6
vs Detroit Red Wings
Jan 21, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 3
1-2