Final Score: Maple Leafs 2 - Lightning 4
Wednesday, February 25, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET
Maple Leafs @ Lightning
NHL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Model Prediction Through Season
| Stat | Maple Leafs | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| All-time wins | 74 | 53 |
| Last 5 meetings | 5 | 0 |
| Average goals | 3.3 | 2.9 |
| Last meeting | 2 | 0 |
| Stat | Maple Leafs | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Games played | 57 | 55 |
| Avg goals scored | 3.3 | 3.6 |
| Avg goals conceded | 3.4 | 2.5 |
| Win percentage | 47% | 67% |
| Away win % / Home win % | 42% | 67% |
Recent Results
Maple Leafs
@ Edmonton Oilers
Feb 3, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 7
5-2
@ Calgary Flames
Feb 2, 2026 · Margin: +2 · Total: 6
4-2
@ Vancouver Canucks
Jan 31, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 5
3-2
@ Seattle Kraken
Jan 29, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 7
2-5
vs Buffalo Sabres
Jan 27, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 11
4-7
vs Colorado Avalanche
Jan 25, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 5
1-4
vs Vegas Golden Knights
Jan 23, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 9
3-6
vs Detroit Red Wings
Jan 21, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 3
1-2
vs Minnesota Wild
Jan 19, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 9
3-6
@ Winnipeg Jets
Jan 17, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 7
4-3
Lightning
vs Florida Panthers
Feb 5, 2026 · Margin: +5 · Total: 7
6-1
vs Buffalo Sabres
Feb 3, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 7
4-3
vs Boston Bruins
Feb 1, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 11
6-5
vs Winnipeg Jets
Jan 29, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 5
4-1
vs Utah Mammoth
Jan 26, 2026 · Margin: +2 · Total: 2
2-0
@ Columbus Blue Jackets
Jan 24, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 13
5-8
@ Chicago Blackhawks
Jan 23, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 3
2-1
vs San Jose Sharks
Jan 20, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 5
4-1
@ Dallas Stars
Jan 18, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 5
4-1
@ St. Louis Blues
Jan 16, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 5
2-3