Lightning @ Maple Leafs

NHL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Final Score: Lightning 0 - Maple Leafs 0
Wednesday, March 17, 2027 at 7:30 PM ET
Tampa Bay
Lightning
11-6 Rating 1549
Form: LWWWL
@
Model Probability
60%
40%
Projected margin: Tampa Bay Lightning +0.2
Toronto
Maple Leafs
8-11 Rating 1467
Form: LWLLL

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Lightning Maple Leafs
All-time wins 55 74
Last 5 meetings 2 3
Average goals 2.9 3.2
Last meeting 5 2

Key Season Stats

Stat Lightning Maple Leafs
Games played 17 19
Avg goals scored 3.7 3.4
Avg goals conceded 3.1 3.4
Win percentage 65% 42%
Away win % / Home win % 33% 36%