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Championship
Sat, Feb 13, 2027 · 3:00 PM GMT

Birmingham vs Derby Prediction & Win Probability

Birmingham has a 49% chance to win.

2-5-1 · Rating 1650
Form: DWLDD
VS
1-2-5 · Rating 1620
Form: DLLLW
Model Probability
49%
25%
Draw 26%

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Derby

Scenario Win LeagueAutomatic promotionPromotion playoffRelegation
Now <1%<1%7.7%32.1%
If Win <1%<1%10.0%22.9%
If Draw <1%<1%7.8%31.6%
If Lose <1%<1%5.2%35.7%

Birmingham

Scenario Win LeagueAutomatic promotionPromotion playoffRelegation
Now <1%2.8%28.7%6.1%
If Win <1%3.0%33.6%4.3%
If Draw <1%2.3%26.6%7.3%
If Lose <1%1.3%23.0%9.5%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

BirminghamStatDerby
8Games played8
1.5Avg goals scored0.9
1.4Avg goals conceded1.8
25% / 62% / 12%Win / Draw / Loss12% / 25% / 62%
0% Home win % / Away win % 25%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
BirminghamStatDerby
5All-time wins (25 meetings, 9 draws)11
2Last 5 meetings (2 draws)1
1.4Average goals1.9
Last meeting (2026-09-12): Derby 1–2 Birmingham