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Derby vs Southampton Prediction & Win Probability

Southampton has a 50% chance to win.
Championship
Sat, Feb 6, 2027 · 3:00 PM GMT
Championship
Derby
2-4-9Rating 1591
Form: WLLDL
vs
Model Probability
24%
Draw 26%
50%
Championship
Southampton
8-4-3Rating 1750
Form: LDWWD

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Southampton

Scenario Win LeagueAutomatic promotionPromotion playoffRelegation
Now 24.3%41.8%48.4%<1%
If Win 28.1%48.5%45.6%<1%
If Draw 20.6%38.3%52.1%<1%
If Lose 16.1%32.0%53.7%<1%

Derby

Scenario Win LeagueAutomatic promotionPromotion playoffRelegation
Now <1%<1%<1%54.7%
If Win <1%<1%1.1%44.7%
If Draw <1%<1%<1%55.4%
If Lose <1%<1%<1%58.6%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

DerbyStatSouthampton
15Games played15
0.9Avg goals scored1.9
2.0Avg goals conceded1.0
13% / 27% / 60%Win / Draw / Loss53% / 27% / 20%
12% Home win % / Away win % 25%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
DerbyStatSouthampton
0All-time wins (4 meetings, 2 draws)2
0Last 4 meetings (2 draws)2
0.8Average goals2.0
Last meeting (2026-04-11): Southampton 2–1 Derby