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Championship
Sat, Feb 6, 2027 · 3:00 PM GMT

Derby vs Southampton Prediction & Win Probability

Southampton has a 44% chance to win.

1-2-5 · Rating 1620
Form: DLLLW
VS
4-2-2 · Rating 1738
Form: LWWDD
Model Probability
29%
44%
Draw 27%

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Southampton

Scenario Win LeagueAutomatic promotionPromotion playoffRelegation
Now 11.8%28.3%54.1%<1%
If Win 13.1%30.9%55.7%<1%
If Draw 10.5%26.4%54.8%<1%
If Lose 7.7%22.5%54.2%<1%

Derby

Scenario Win LeagueAutomatic promotionPromotion playoffRelegation
Now <1%<1%7.8%30.3%
If Win <1%<1%9.8%23.4%
If Draw <1%<1%6.6%31.8%
If Lose <1%<1%5.5%36.1%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

DerbyStatSouthampton
8Games played8
0.9Avg goals scored2.4
1.8Avg goals conceded1.2
12% / 25% / 62%Win / Draw / Loss50% / 25% / 25%
0% Home win % / Away win % 0%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
DerbyStatSouthampton
0All-time wins (4 meetings, 2 draws)2
0Last 4 meetings (2 draws)2
0.8Average goals2.0
Last meeting (2026-04-11): Southampton 2–1 Derby