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Birmingham vs Derby Prediction & Win Probability

Birmingham has a 60% chance to win.
Championship
Fri, Feb 12, 2027 · 8:00 PM GMT
Championship
Birmingham
7-5-2Rating 1691
Form: WWLWW
vs
Model Probability
60%
Draw 23%
18%
Championship
Derby
1-4-9Rating 1582
Form: LLDLL

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Derby

Scenario Win LeagueAutomatic promotionPromotion playoffRelegation
Now <1%<1%<1%63.9%
If Win <1%<1%<1%52.7%
If Draw <1%<1%<1%61.9%
If Lose <1%<1%<1%68.9%

Birmingham

Scenario Win LeagueAutomatic promotionPromotion playoffRelegation
Now 5.8%12.5%57.2%<1%
If Win 6.1%15.1%60.0%<1%
If Draw 4.8%11.6%56.1%<1%
If Lose 2.7%7.6%51.9%<1%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

BirminghamStatDerby
14Games played14
1.9Avg goals scored0.8
0.9Avg goals conceded2.1
50% / 36% / 14%Win / Draw / Loss7% / 29% / 64%
43% Home win % / Away win % 14%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
BirminghamStatDerby
5All-time wins (25 meetings, 9 draws)11
2Last 5 meetings (2 draws)1
1.4Average goals1.9
Last meeting (2026-09-12): Derby 1–2 Birmingham