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Bolton vs Derby Prediction & Win Probability

Bolton has a 44% chance to win.
Championship
Sat, Jan 30, 2027 · 12:30 PM GMT
Championship
Bolton
5-2-8Rating 1591
Form: LWLLD
vs
Model Probability
44%
Draw 27%
28%
Championship
Derby
2-4-9Rating 1591
Form: WLLDL

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Derby

Scenario Win LeagueAutomatic promotionPromotion playoffRelegation
Now <1%<1%<1%53.7%
If Win <1%<1%<1%42.5%
If Draw <1%<1%<1%54.9%
If Lose <1%<1%<1%62.8%

Bolton

Scenario Win LeagueAutomatic promotionPromotion playoffRelegation
Now <1%<1%2.6%22.0%
If Win <1%<1%3.8%15.8%
If Draw <1%<1%2.6%23.8%
If Lose <1%<1%1.3%30.8%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

BoltonStatDerby
15Games played15
1.3Avg goals scored0.9
1.9Avg goals conceded2.0
33% / 13% / 53%Win / Draw / Loss13% / 27% / 60%
29% Home win % / Away win % 14%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
BoltonStatDerby
3All-time wins (17 meetings, 5 draws)9
1Last 5 meetings (1 draws)3
0.8Average goals1.7
Last meeting (2026-11-06): Derby 3–1 Bolton