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Ligue 1
Sat, Dec 5, 2026 · 4:00 PM GMT

Toulouse vs PSG Prediction & Win Probability

PSG has a 61% chance to win.

1-2-2 · Rating 1740
Form: WDLDL
VS
2-2-1 · Rating 1977
Form: WWLDD
Model Probability
17%
61%
Draw 22%

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

PSG

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now 61.6%91.6%4.1%<1%<1%
If Win 65.5%93.3%3.8%<1%<1%
If Draw 55.6%88.4%5.5%<1%<1%
If Lose 50.4%85.2%5.9%<1%<1%

Toulouse

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%1.6%2.1%13.7%5.6%
If Win <1%4.1%3.7%8.8%2.8%
If Draw <1%2.3%2.2%14.2%5.2%
If Lose <1%1.1%1.7%15.4%7.4%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

ToulouseStatPSG
5Games played5
1.4Avg goals scored1.6
1.8Avg goals conceded1.4
20% / 40% / 40%Win / Draw / Loss40% / 40% / 20%
33% Home win % / Away win % 50%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
ToulouseStatPSG
2All-time wins (28 meetings, 3 draws)23
1Last 5 meetings (0 draws)4
0.7Average goals2.4
Last meeting (2026-04-03): PSG 3–1 Toulouse