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Mainz vs Hamburger SV Prediction & Win Probability

Mainz has a 51% chance to win.
Final Score: Mainz 1–1 Hamburger SV
Fri, Feb 20, 2026 · 7:30 PM GMT
Bundesliga
Mainz
5-6-11Rating 1730
Form: LWWWL
1 – 1
Model Probability
51%
Draw 26%
23%
Bundesliga
Hamburger SV
6-7-8Rating 1687
Form: WWDDD

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Form Coming Into This Game

MainzStatHamburger SV
22Games played21
1.1Avg goals scored1.1
1.7Avg goals conceded1.5
23% / 27% / 50%Win / Draw / Loss29% / 33% / 38%
27% Home win % / Away win % 10%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
MainzStatHamburger SV
7All-time wins (18 meetings, 5 draws)6
2Last 5 meetings (2 draws)1
1.3Average goals1.2
Last meeting (2025-10-05): Hamburger SV 4–0 Mainz