โ† Home / UEFA Nations League / Matchups / Netherlands vs Germany
UEFA Nations League · League A · Group 2 · Round 1
Thu, Sep 24, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM BST

Netherlands vs Germany Prediction & Win Probability

Netherlands has a 43% chance to win, with a 30% chance of a draw.

Rating 1950 · World #6
Form: DWWDW
VS
Rating 1927 · World #9
Form: DLWWW
Model Probability
43%
27%
Draw 30%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 2 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand52%35%10%3%
Netherlands win 74%21%5%1%
Draw 47%39%11%3%
Germany win 22%54%18%5%

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand41%41%14%4%
Netherlands win 20%54%19%6%
Draw 45%39%12%4%
Germany win 72%22%6%1%

League A ยท Group 2

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Netherlands 0 0 1950 52% 35% 10% 3%
Germany 0 0 1927 41% 41% 14% 4%
Serbia 0 0 1745 4% 13% 42% 42%
Greece 0 0 1728 3% 10% 35% 52%
Quarter-finals (1st, 2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League B (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
NetherlandsStatGermany
6-4-0Won-Drawn-Lost7-1-2
2.8Avg goals scored2.7
0.9Avg goals conceded0.8
1950Rating1927
#6World rank#9

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
NetherlandsStatGermany
2Wins (12 meetings, 5 draws)5
1Last 5 meetings (2 draws)2
1.5Average goals1.67
Last meeting (Mon, Oct 14, 2024, Nations League): Germany 1–0 Netherlands

Recent Results

๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands

vs Morocco
Tue, Jun 30, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 48%
1–1
@ Tunisia
Thu, Jun 25, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 77%
3–1
vs Sweden
Sat, Jun 20, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 62%
5–1
vs Japan
Sun, Jun 14, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 50%
2–2
vs Lithuania
Mon, Nov 17, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 94%
4–0

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany

vs Paraguay
Mon, Jun 29, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 63%
1–1
@ Ecuador
Thu, Jun 25, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 58%
1–2
vs Ivory Coast
Sat, Jun 20, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 67%
2–1
vs Curacao
Sun, Jun 14, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 86%
7–1
vs Slovakia
Mon, Nov 17, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 70%
6–0