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UEFA Nations League · League A · Group 1 · Round 1
Fri, Sep 25, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM BST

Italy vs Belgium Prediction & Win Probability

Italy has a 37% chance to win, with a 31% chance of a draw.

Rating 1866 · World #13
Form: DWLWW
VS
Rating 1890 · World #10
Form: LWDWD
Model Probability
37%
33%
Draw 31%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 1 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand13%30%34%23%
Italy win 22%43%26%10%
Draw 11%29%36%24%
Belgium win 5%16%44%36%

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand18%34%30%18%
Italy win 9%23%40%28%
Draw 16%37%30%17%
Belgium win 31%45%18%6%

League A ยท Group 1

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– France 0 0 2009 65% 22% 10% 3%
– Belgium 0 0 1890 18% 34% 30% 18%
– Italy 0 0 1866 13% 30% 34% 23%
– Turkey 0 0 1780 4% 13% 26% 57%
Quarter-finals (1st, 2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League B (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
ItalyStatBelgium
7-1-2Won-Drawn-Lost4-5-1
2.4Avg goals scored2.5
1.3Avg goals conceded1.0
1866Rating1890
#13World rank#10

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
ItalyStatBelgium
4Wins (6 meetings, 1 draw)1
4Last 5 meetings (1 draw)0
1.67Average goals1.17
Last meeting (Thu, Nov 14, 2024, Nations League): Belgium 0–1 Italy

Recent Results

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy

@ Bosnia & Herzegovina
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 67%
1–1
vs Northern Ireland
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 75%
2–0
vs Norway
Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 55%
1–4
@ Moldova
Thu, Nov 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 89%
2–0
vs Israel
Tue, Oct 14, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 77%
3–0

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium

@ Spain
Fri, Jul 10, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 18%
1–2
@ USA
Tue, Jul 7, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 41%
4–1
vs Senegal
Wed, Jul 1, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 47%
2–2
@ New Zealand
Sat, Jun 27, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 70%
5–1
vs Iran
Sun, Jun 21, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 48%
0–0