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← Home / UEFA Nations League / Matchups / Turkey vs Italy
Final Score: Turkey 1–4 Italy
UEFA Nations League · League A · Group 1 · Round 2
Mon, Sep 28, 2026 · 7:45 PM BST

Turkey vs Italy Prediction & Win Probability

Before kickoff, Italy had a 40% chance to win, with a 30% chance of a draw.

Turkey
Rating 1754 · World #27
Form: LWLLW
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VS
Italy
Rating 1877 · World #12
Form: LDWLW
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Pre-match probability
30%
40%
Draw 30%

League A · Group 1

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
1 France 4 10 2020 90% 10% <1% <1%
2 Italy 4 7 1877 9% 37% 55% <1%
3 Belgium 4 6 1894 2% 54% 45% <1%
4 Turkey 4 0 1754 <1% <1% <1% 100%
Quarter-finals (1st, 2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League B (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 7 internationals in any competition
TurkeyStatItaly
3-1-3Won-Drawn-Lost4-1-2
1.0Avg goals scored1.71
1.14Avg goals conceded1.14
1754Rating1877
#27World rank#12

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
Full head-to-head
TurkeyStatItaly
0Wins (5 meetings, 1 draw)4
0Last 5 meetings (1 draw)4
0.8Average goals2.6
Last meeting (Mon, Oct 5, 2026, Nations League): Italy 3–1 Turkey

Recent Results

🇹🇷 Turkey

vs France
Fri, Sep 25, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 15%
0–1
vs USA
Fri, Jun 26, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 26%
3–2
vs Paraguay
Sat, Jun 20, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 44%
0–1
@ Australia
Sun, Jun 14, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 40%
0–2
@ Kosovo
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 54%
1–0

🇮🇹 Italy

vs Belgium
Fri, Sep 25, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 37%
0–2
@ Bosnia & Herzegovina
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 67%
1–1
vs Northern Ireland
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 75%
2–0
vs Norway
Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 55%
1–4
@ Moldova
Thu, Nov 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 89%
2–0