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← Home / UEFA Nations League / Matchups / Turkey vs France
UEFA Nations League · League A · Group 1 · Round 1
Fri, Sep 25, 2026 · 7:45 PM BST

Turkey vs France Prediction & Win Probability

France has a 61% chance to win, with a 24% chance of a draw.

Turkey
Rating 1780 · World #24
Form: WLLWW
Next ›
VS
France
Rating 2009 · World #3
Form: LLWWW
Next ›
Model Probability
15%
61%
Draw 24%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 1 position, depending on this result
Full Group Outlook

🇹🇷 Turkey

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand4%13%26%57%
Turkey win 13%23%30%34%
Draw 5%14%27%54%
France win 1%11%25%63%

🇫🇷 France

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand65%22%10%3%
Turkey win 43%28%18%11%
Draw 58%25%14%4%
France win 73%20%6%<1%

League A · Group 1

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– France 0 0 2009 65% 22% 10% 3%
– Belgium 0 0 1890 18% 34% 30% 18%
– Italy 0 0 1866 13% 30% 34% 23%
– Turkey 0 0 1780 4% 13% 26% 57%
Quarter-finals (1st, 2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League B (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
TurkeyStatFrance
6-1-3Won-Drawn-Lost8-0-2
1.9Avg goals scored2.7
1.5Avg goals conceded1.1
1780Rating2009
#24World rank#3

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
Full head-to-head
TurkeyStatFrance
1Wins (2 meetings, 1 draw)0
1Last 2 meetings (1 draw)0
1.5Average goals0.5
Last meeting (Mon, Oct 14, 2019, Euro): France 1–1 Turkey

Recent Results

🇹🇷 Turkey

vs USA
Fri, Jun 26, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 26%
3–2
vs Paraguay
Sat, Jun 20, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 44%
0–1
@ Australia
Sun, Jun 14, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 40%
0–2
@ Kosovo
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 54%
1–0
vs Romania
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 55%
1–0

🇫🇷 France

vs England
Sat, Jul 18, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 43%
4–6
vs Spain
Tue, Jul 14, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 33%
0–2
vs Morocco
Thu, Jul 9, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 57%
2–0
@ Paraguay
Sat, Jul 4, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 74%
1–0
vs Sweden
Tue, Jun 30, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 74%
3–0