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UEFA Nations League · League B · Group 4 · Round 2
Mon, Sep 28, 2026 Β· 7:45 PM BST

Sweden vs Poland Prediction & Win Probability

Sweden has a 39% chance to win, with a 30% chance of a draw.

Rating 1727 · World #36
Form: LDLWW
VS
Rating 1732 · World #32
Form: LWWDW
Model Probability
39%
30%
Draw 30%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ͺ Sweden

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand35%30%22%13%
Sweden win 54%27%14%6%
Draw 30%31%25%14%
Poland win 14%34%30%22%

πŸ‡΅πŸ‡± Poland

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand37%29%22%13%
Sweden win 18%33%29%20%
Draw 38%29%22%12%
Poland win 61%24%11%5%

League B Β· Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– Poland 0 0 1732 37% 29% 22% 13%
– Sweden 0 0 1727 35% 30% 22% 13%
– Romania 0 0 1686 21% 26% 30% 23%
– Bosnia & Herzegovina 0 0 1608 7% 14% 27% 51%
Promoted to League A (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League C (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
SwedenStatPoland
3-2-5Won-Drawn-Lost6-2-2
1.5Avg goals scored1.8
2.1Avg goals conceded1.1
1727Rating1732
#36World rank#32

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
SwedenStatPoland
2Wins (3 meetings, 0 draws)1
2Last 3 meetings (0 draws)1
2.0Average goals2.0
Last meeting (Tue, Mar 31, 2026, World Cup qualifier): Sweden 3–2 Poland

Recent Results

πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ͺ Sweden

@ France
Tue, Jun 30, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 9%
0–3
@ Japan
Thu, Jun 25, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 21%
1–1
@ Netherlands
Sat, Jun 20, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 15%
1–5
vs Tunisia
Mon, Jun 15, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 42%
5–1
vs Poland
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 36%
3–2

πŸ‡΅πŸ‡± Poland

@ Sweden
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 33%
2–3
vs Albania
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 55%
2–1
@ Malta
Mon, Nov 17, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 82%
3–2
vs Netherlands
Fri, Nov 14, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 16%
1–1
@ Lithuania
Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 75%
2–0