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UEFA Nations League · League B · Group 4 · Round 1
Fri, Sep 25, 2026 Β· 7:45 PM BST

Sweden vs Romania Prediction & Win Probability

Sweden has a 46% chance to win, with a 29% chance of a draw.

Rating 1727 · World #36
Form: LDLWW
VS
Rating 1686 · World #50
Form: LWLWD
Model Probability
46%
25%
Draw 29%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ͺ Sweden

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand35%30%22%13%
Sweden win 50%32%14%5%
Draw 27%32%25%15%
Romania win 16%26%33%24%

πŸ‡·πŸ‡΄ Romania

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand21%26%30%23%
Sweden win 10%22%36%32%
Draw 22%29%29%20%
Romania win 40%32%19%9%

League B Β· Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– Poland 0 0 1732 37% 29% 22% 13%
– Sweden 0 0 1727 35% 30% 22% 13%
– Romania 0 0 1686 21% 26% 30% 23%
– Bosnia & Herzegovina 0 0 1608 7% 14% 27% 51%
Promoted to League A (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League C (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
SwedenStatRomania
3-2-5Won-Drawn-Lost5-1-4
1.5Avg goals scored2.3
2.1Avg goals conceded1.2
1727Rating1686
#36World rank#50

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
SwedenStatRomania
2Wins (3 meetings, 0 draws)1
2Last 3 meetings (0 draws)1
1.33Average goals0.67
Last meeting (Fri, Nov 15, 2019, Euro): Romania 0–2 Sweden

Recent Results

πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ͺ Sweden

@ France
Tue, Jun 30, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 9%
0–3
@ Japan
Thu, Jun 25, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 21%
1–1
@ Netherlands
Sat, Jun 20, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 15%
1–5
vs Tunisia
Mon, Jun 15, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 42%
5–1
vs Poland
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 36%
3–2

πŸ‡·πŸ‡΄ Romania

@ Turkey
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 19%
0–1
vs San Marino
Tue, Nov 18, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 96%
7–1
@ Bosnia & Herzegovina
Sat, Nov 15, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 47%
1–3
vs Austria
Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 27%
1–0
@ Cyprus
Tue, Sep 9, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 74%
2–2