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UEFA Nations League · League D · Group 1 · Round 3
Thu, Oct 1, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM BST

Malta vs Gibraltar Prediction & Win Probability

Malta has a 57% chance to win, with a 26% chance of a draw.

Rating 1309 · World #166
Form: LLLWL
VS
Rating 1191 · World #202
Form: LLLLL
Model Probability
57%
18%
Draw 26%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 1 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡น Malta

Scenario1st2nd3rd
As things stand58%28%14%
Malta win 73%22%5%
Draw 49%32%19%
Gibraltar win 26%39%35%

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Gibraltar

Scenario1st2nd3rd
As things stand19%35%46%
Malta win 7%35%57%
Draw 23%36%40%
Gibraltar win 50%31%19%

League D ยท Group 1

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd
Malta 0 0 1309 58% 28% 14%
Andorra 0 0 1206 23% 37% 40%
Gibraltar 0 0 1191 19% 35% 46%
Promoted to League C (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
MaltaStatGibraltar
1-2-7Won-Drawn-Lost0-0-10
0.4Avg goals scored0.3
2.4Avg goals conceded3.0
1309Rating1191
#166World rank#202

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
MaltaStatGibraltar
2Wins (3 meetings, 0 draws)1
2Last 3 meetings (0 draws)1
1.0Average goals0.33
Last meeting (Wed, Sep 6, 2023, Friendly): Malta 1–0 Gibraltar

Recent Results

๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡น Malta

@ Luxembourg
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 15%
0–3
vs Luxembourg
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 23%
0–2
vs Poland
Mon, Nov 17, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 6%
2–3
@ Finland
Fri, Nov 14, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 7%
1–0
vs Netherlands
Thu, Oct 9, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 2%
0–4

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Gibraltar

@ Latvia
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 12%
0–1
vs Latvia
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 19%
0–1
@ Czech Republic
Mon, Nov 17, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 2%
0–6
vs Montenegro
Fri, Nov 14, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 10%
1–2
@ Croatia
Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 1%
0–3