Final Score: Cowboys 30 - Commanders 23
Thursday, December 25, 2025 at 1:00 PM ET
Cowboys @ Commanders
NFL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Model Prediction Through Season
| Stat | Cowboys | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| All-time wins | 70 | 42 |
| Last 5 meetings | 4 | 1 |
| Average points | 23.2 | 18.8 |
| Last meeting | 44 | 22 |
| Stat | Cowboys | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Games played | 15 | 15 |
| Avg points scored | 28.3 | 20.6 |
| Avg points conceded | 30.3 | 26.9 |
| Win percentage | 40% | 27% |
| Away win % / Home win % | 29% | 29% |
Recent Results
Cowboys
vs Los Angeles Chargers
Dec 21, 2025 · Margin: -17 · Total: 51
17-34
vs Minnesota Vikings
Dec 14, 2025 · Margin: -8 · Total: 60
26-34
@ Detroit Lions
Dec 4, 2025 · Margin: -14 · Total: 74
30-44
vs Kansas City Chiefs
Nov 27, 2025 · Margin: +3 · Total: 59
31-28
vs Philadelphia Eagles
Nov 23, 2025 · Margin: +3 · Total: 45
24-21
@ Las Vegas Raiders
Nov 17, 2025 · Margin: +17 · Total: 49
33-16
vs Arizona Cardinals
Nov 3, 2025 · Margin: -10 · Total: 44
17-27
@ Denver Broncos
Oct 26, 2025 · Margin: -20 · Total: 68
24-44
vs Washington Commanders
Oct 19, 2025 · Margin: +22 · Total: 66
44-22
@ Carolina Panthers
Oct 12, 2025 · Margin: -3 · Total: 57
27-30
Commanders
vs Philadelphia Eagles
Dec 20, 2025 · Margin: -11 · Total: 47
18-29
@ New York Giants
Dec 14, 2025 · Margin: +8 · Total: 50
29-21
@ Minnesota Vikings
Dec 7, 2025 · Margin: -31 · Total: 31
0-31
vs Denver Broncos
Nov 30, 2025 · Margin: -1 · Total: 53
26-27
vs Miami Dolphins
Nov 16, 2025 · Margin: -3 · Total: 29
13-16
vs Detroit Lions
Nov 9, 2025 · Margin: -22 · Total: 66
22-44
vs Seattle Seahawks
Nov 2, 2025 · Margin: -24 · Total: 52
14-38
@ Kansas City Chiefs
Oct 27, 2025 · Margin: -21 · Total: 35
7-28
@ Dallas Cowboys
Oct 19, 2025 · Margin: -22 · Total: 66
22-44
vs Chicago Bears
Oct 13, 2025 · Margin: -1 · Total: 49
24-25