Final Score: Penguins 4 - Lightning 3
Thursday, December 4, 2025 at 7:00 PM ET

Penguins @ Lightning

NHL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Penguins
13-12 Rating 1480
Form: LWWLW
Model Probability
38%
62%
Projected margin: Tampa Bay Lightning +1.0
Lightning
16-10 Rating 1541
Form: WWWWL

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Penguins Lightning
All-time wins 64 55
Last 5 meetings 1 4
Average goals 3.2 2.9
Last meeting 1 6

Key Season Stats

Stat Penguins Lightning
Games played 25 26
Avg goals scored 3.2 3.3
Avg goals conceded 2.8 2.6
Win percentage 52% 62%
Away win % / Home win % 54% 62%