Final Score: Maple Leafs 1 - Senators 3
Wednesday, April 15, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET
Maple Leafs @ Senators
NHL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Model Probability
39%
61%
Projected margin: Ottawa Senators +1.0
Model Prediction Through Season
| Stat | Maple Leafs | Senators |
|---|---|---|
| All-time wins | 89 | 88 |
| Last 5 meetings | 2 | 3 |
| Average goals | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Last meeting | 2 | 5 |
| Stat | Maple Leafs | Senators |
|---|---|---|
| Games played | 81 | 81 |
| Avg goals scored | 3.1 | 3.4 |
| Avg goals conceded | 3.7 | 3.0 |
| Win percentage | 40% | 53% |
| Away win % / Home win % | 35% | 55% |
Recent Results
Maple Leafs
vs Dallas Stars
Apr 13, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 11
5-6
vs Florida Panthers
Apr 11, 2026 · Margin: -4 · Total: 8
2-6
@ New York Islanders
Apr 9, 2026 · Margin: -2 · Total: 8
3-5
vs Washington Capitals
Apr 8, 2026 · Margin: -4 · Total: 4
0-4
@ Los Angeles Kings
Apr 4, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 13
6-7
@ San Jose Sharks
Apr 2, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 5
1-4
@ Anaheim Ducks
Mar 30, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 9
5-4
@ St. Louis Blues
Mar 28, 2026 · Margin: -4 · Total: 6
1-5
vs New York Rangers
Mar 25, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 7
4-3
@ Boston Bruins
Mar 24, 2026 · Margin: +2 · Total: 6
4-2
Senators
@ New Jersey Devils
Apr 12, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 7
3-4
@ New York Islanders
Apr 11, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 3
3-0
vs Florida Panthers
Apr 9, 2026 · Margin: +4 · Total: 6
5-1
vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Apr 7, 2026 · Margin: +4 · Total: 8
6-2
vs Carolina Hurricanes
Apr 5, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 9
6-3
vs Minnesota Wild
Apr 4, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 5
1-4
vs Buffalo Sabres
Apr 2, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 5
4-1
@ Florida Panthers
Mar 31, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 9
3-6
@ Tampa Bay Lightning
Mar 28, 2026 · Margin: -2 · Total: 6
2-4
vs Pittsburgh Penguins
Mar 26, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 7
3-4